Kauno Žalgiris1-2Dinamo Zagreb

UEFA Champions League action returns to Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas as Kauno Žalgiris host Dinamo Zagreb. The only previous meeting between these sides took place a week earlier, with Dinamo Zagreb winning 5-0 in Zagreb.

The model, however, makes Kauno Žalgiris favorites for this leg. It gives the home side a 67.5% win probability, with the draw at 21.1% and an away win at 11.3%. The projected score is 1-0, built on expected goals of 1.86 for the hosts and 0.6 for the visitors.

Neither side's domestic league position appears in the available data, so the preview relies on recent match records and the model's projection.

Kauno Žalgiris' last five matches read LWDWD, with an average of one goal scored and 1.6 conceded per game. The most recent result in that sequence was the 5-0 defeat against Dinamo Zagreb on 4 August.

At home, their last two matches have produced one win and one draw, scoring one goal per game and conceding 0.5. They have yet to lose in that two-game home sample, and their home concession rate is lower than the 1.6 per game they have averaged over the last five matches overall.

Dinamo Zagreb enter this fixture with a recent run of WWDWL, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over those five matches. Their last outing was the 5-0 win over Kauno Žalgiris on 4 August.

Away from home, they have played six matches, winning three, drawing one and losing two. In those away games they have averaged 1.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded, producing an average of 4.16 total goals per match.

The head-to-head record between these sides contains just one match. On 4 August 2026, Dinamo Zagreb beat Kauno Žalgiris 5-0 in Zagreb.

The sample is therefore too small to carry much predictive weight. That one meeting produced five goals, all for the home team, and no meeting has finished with two or fewer total goals. Kauno Žalgiris have scored none in the fixture, while Dinamo Zagreb have scored five.

Kauno Žalgiris' home record from their last two matches at Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas is one win and one draw, with an average of 1 goal scored and 0.5 conceded. At home they are yet to lose in that sample.

Dinamo Zagreb's away form over six matches is 3W 1D 2L, with 1.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Their away matches have averaged 4.16 total goals, a mark well above the 2.46 total expected goals in the model for this match.

Both teams come into this match with seven days of rest since their last fixtures on 4 August, so there is no rest-day advantage for either side. No league table data is available for either team, and no promotion adjustments or fixture-congestion flags appear in the dataset.

The model's confidence is medium. The wide margin of the only previous meeting, combined with the small head-to-head sample, means the statistical base for this match is thinner than usual.

The Poisson model assigns Kauno Žalgiris a 67.5% win probability, a 21.1% draw probability, and an 11.3% Dinamo Zagreb win probability. Its most likely outcome is therefore a home win.

The projected score is 1-0, with expected goals of 1.86 for the hosts and 0.6 for the away side. Among exact scorelines, 1-0 is the most likely at 15.8%, followed by 2-0 at 14.7% and 1-1 at 9.6%. The model's overall confidence is medium.

The available evidence points toward a Kauno Žalgiris victory in this leg. The model gives them a clear majority of the probability, and their recent home form includes two matches without defeat.

The model's preferred scoreline is 1-0, with 2-0 not far behind. That said, the evidence base is thin: there is no league table data, the head-to-head consists of a single match, and the one prior meeting was won 5-0 by the away side. For comparison, Dinamo Zagreb's six away matches have averaged 1.83 goals scored, well above the 0.6 expected goals assigned by the model for this match. The model's medium confidence is a reminder that the projection should be read as an estimate, not a certainty.