Kauno ŽalgirisvsBeşiktaş

This UEFA Europa League tie brings Kauno Žalgiris and Beşiktaş together for the second time in a week, after a 3-0 away win for Beşiktaş on 20 August. The model rates a draw as the most likely outcome at 50.5%, with the projected scoreline a goalless 0-0. Low scoring is the defining feature of the fixture's projection.

No league table is available for Kauno Žalgiris, but their recent five matches show one win, two draws and two losses, averaging 0.8 scored and 2.2 conceded. At home in the last five, they have been stronger, with two wins, two draws and a loss, and notably better defensive numbers at 0.8 conceded per game.

Beşiktaş have won four of their last five matches, with the sole loss coming five games ago, and in that run they have averaged 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. Their last three away games show two wins and one loss, averaging 1.0 scored and 0.33 conceded, a slightly less prolific but still secure defensive profile.

The head-to-head record is a single meeting, which Beşiktaş won 3-0 on 20 August 2026. Kauno Žalgiris have scored no goals in that fixture. One match is too small a sample to draw firm conclusions from.

Kauno Žalgiris's home form has been markedly better than their recent overall results, especially defensively, conceding 0.8 per match at home versus 2.2 overall. Beşiktaş's away scoring is slightly below their overall recent average, at 1.0 per away game against 1.2 overall, but their away defensive record remains tight at 0.33 conceded.

Beşiktaş face a short turnaround, with only four days since their last match, while Kauno Žalgiris have had seven days. The recent head-to-head meeting is the only direct comparison, and the model projects a very low-scoring game. These factors combine to suggest a cautious, low-event contest.

The Poisson model, at medium confidence, gives the draw a 50.5% probability, an away win 32.2%, and a home win 17.2%. The projected score is 0-0, with expected goals of 0.32 for Kauno Žalgiris and 0.53 for Beşiktaş. The model projects about 0.84 total goals, with a 20.6% chance of two or more and an 11.1% chance of both teams scoring. The winning-margin distribution is led by the draw at 50.5%, followed by an away win by one goal at 24.6%.

The data points to a tightly contested, low-scoring match in which Kauno Žalgiris's improved home solidity is offset by Beşiktaş's efficient recent form. The model's clearest signal is a draw, with 0-0 the most probable exact scoreline. That projection would be undone if Beşiktaş's away attack outperforms its modest expected-goals figure, or if Kauno Žalgiris's home defensive record reverts to their overall recent average.