Karviná3-0Viktoria Žižkov

This round 5 fixture sees Karviná host Viktoria Žižkov in the Czech National Football League. Karviná have won both home matches this season, while Žižkov have lost both away games. The model gives Karviná a 92.4% win probability, the highest of any outcome.

Karviná arrive in strong form, with their last five matches reading WWWLW and an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. At home, they have won both matches, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 per game.

Viktoria Žižkov have been inconsistent, going LLWLW in their last five with an average of 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded. Their two away matches both ended in defeat, with 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game.

There are no prior meetings on record, so the historical sample is too small to draw any conclusions from head-to-head data.

Karviná's home form has been solid, with two wins from two and a combined score of 3-1. Žižkov's away record is the opposite, with two losses and a combined score of 1-5. The split is stark.

Karviná have had one extra day of rest since their last match. Both sides have small sample sizes this early in the season, but the model sees the gap in home and away performances as significant.

The model projects a 2-0 Karviná win, with expected goals of 2.99 for the home side and 0.16 for the visitors. The most likely exact scorelines are 2-0 and 3-0, each at 19.1%. Total goals are projected at 3.15, with an 82.2% chance of at least two goals. Karviná are given a 76.2% chance of winning by two or more.

The data points strongly to a comfortable home win, centered on Karviná's strong home record and Žižkov's away struggles. The projection would be wrong if Karviná fail to convert their chances, but the model sees a very one-sided contest.