Karviná B2-1Polanka nad Odrou

This is the fourth round of the Moravian-Silesian Football League, with Karviná B hosting Polanka nad Odrou. Karviná B have won both home matches without conceding, while Polanka have lost two of three away games. The Poisson model gives the hosts a 74.9% win probability.

Karviná B come into this match with a 1.6 goals-per-game scoring average over their last five, but at home that rises to 2.0 with zero conceded in two matches. Their recent sequence reads D-W-L-L-W, so form has been uneven overall even as the home results have been clean.

Polanka have lost three of their last five matches, with a 0.4 goals-per-game scoring rate over that stretch. On the road they have averaged 0.67 goals and conceded once per match in three away fixtures, with that single win among those. Their recent form sequence is D-L-L-L-W.

There are no prior meetings on record between these two sides. With no head-to-head history, the model's estimates rest entirely on current form and venue splits.

Karviná B's two home wins have come with a two-goal average and no goals conceded, while their overall recent form includes losses. Polanka's away scoring average of 0.67 is slightly higher than their overall 0.4, but their away record is still one win in three.

Both sides have had seven days since their last match, so rest is equal. The absence of any previous meetings and the small sample of venue-specific results make projections less certain than usual. Polanka's low scoring rate is the most prominent factor in the model's low expected goal total.

The model projects a 1-0 home win, with expected goals of 1.59 for Karviná B and 0.15 for Polanka. It sees a 74.9% chance of a home victory and only a 3.2% chance of an away win, with medium confidence. Total goals are projected at about 1.74, with a 52% chance of at least two goals and just an 11.1% chance of both teams scoring. The largest share of simulated outcomes has the hosts winning by two or more at 43.6%, followed by a one-goal win at 31.3%.

The data points to a Karviná B victory, likely by a narrow scoreline given the low goal projections. A home win by two or more is the most common simulated margin, but the zero prior meetings and small home/away samples mean the true gap between the sides could be smaller. The projection would be wrong if Polanka's scoring output in this match exceeds the model's expectation.