Kairat Almaty0-1Levski Sofia

Kairat Almaty host Levski Sofia at Turkistan Arena in a UEFA Champions League fixture. The two sides met a week ago, with Levski Sofia winning 1-0. The Poisson model gives Kairat Almaty a 41.4% win probability, the highest of the three outcomes, while the draw sits at 27.6% and an away win at 30.9%. The projected scoreline is 1-1, with expected goals of 1.3 for the home side and 1.08 for the visitors.

No league table record is available for Kairat Almaty. At home over their last 11 matches, they have won 6, drawn 2, and lost 3, with an average of 1.09 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per match, a win rate of 54.5%. Their recent form across the last five matches reads LWWLW, with an average of 1 goal scored and 0.6 conceded. Their last match was on 2026-08-04, giving them 7 days of rest.

Levski Sofia have no league table record available either. In their last 2 away matches, they have drawn both, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match, with a win rate of 0%. Over their last five matches overall, their form is WDWWD, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. They also last played on 2026-08-04, and have had 7 days of rest.

Only one prior meeting between these sides is on record. On 2026-08-04, Levski Sofia defeated Kairat Almaty 1-0. That match produced a single goal, staying under the two-goal threshold. With just one match in the sample, the head-to-head is too small to draw any reliable conclusions, but the away side does hold the edge in the limited history.

Kairat Almaty have a 54.5% win rate at home over their last 11 matches, with their scoring and conceding averages both at 1.09 per game. Levski Sofia's away sample is limited to two matches, both draws, and they have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded in those appearances. The home side's wider home record offers more context, while the visitors' away data is sparse.

Both teams enter with equal rest of 7 days since their last matches. Levski Sofia's recent overall form includes four wins and a draw in their last five, with an average of 1.8 goals scored per match. Kairat Almaty's recent form includes two losses in that span, though they have conceded just 0.6 goals per match. The only head-to-head meeting went to the away side, but the sample is too thin to carry much weight. No league table data is available for either team, limiting broader context.

The Poisson model gives Kairat Almaty the highest win probability at 41.4%, with a draw at 27.6% and Levski Sofia at 30.9%. The projected score is 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.3 and 1.08. The most likely exact scorelines are 1-1 at 13%, 1-0 at 12.1%, and 0-1 at 10%. The model's confidence is medium, indicating that the projections carry a moderate degree of uncertainty.

The data points to a narrowly balanced tie. Kairat Almaty hold the model's highest win probability despite having lost the only prior meeting. The projected scoreline is a draw, which would not reverse the first-leg result if this is a two-legged tie. Levski Sofia's recent scoring form is strong, while Kairat Almaty's home record shows a consistent yet modest output. The small head-to-head sample and absence of league table data mean the model's medium confidence is appropriate. A home win would follow from their solid recent defensive numbers, while the visitors' scoring run is the main factor that could make the away side's projection look too low.