Jonava0-1Šiauliai B

This Round 21 fixture at Jonavos rajono centrinis stadionas pits a Jonava side with a mixed home record against a Šiauliai B outfit that has won none of its last three away matches. The model is clear on the direction of the result, giving Jonava a 60% win probability and making a home victory the most likely outcome.

Jonava's last five league games read L-L-W-W-L, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. At home, they have one win and one defeat in their last two, scoring one and conceding one per game on average. The sample is limited, but the side has shown it can produce results either way.

Šiauliai B have taken just one point from their last three away matches (0W 1D 2L), with an average of one goal scored and two conceded. Their overall recent five-match run (L-D-W-L-L) mirrors those numbers, suggesting the away dip is not an outlier but a continuation of recent struggles.

There are no prior meetings between Jonava and Šiauliai B on record. The head-to-head therefore offers no guidance, and this fixture counts as a genuine first encounter.

Jonava have split their last two home fixtures, while Šiauliai B have been winless in their last three on the road. With only two home games and three away games informing these venue splits, the data is too thin to draw strong conclusions about either side's home or away character.

Both sides enter with identical rest — seven days since their previous match, so there is no scheduling edge. The absence of any head-to-head history and the small venue samples add uncertainty, and the model itself is flagged as medium confidence. That combination means the projected outcome, though leaning clearly toward Jonava, should not be treated as a foregone conclusion.

The model projects a 1-0 home win (expected goals 1.59 to 0.66), giving Jonava a 60% win probability, a draw 24.8%, and Šiauliai B 15.2%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0 at 16.8%, and the model expects about 2.25 total goals, with a 65.8% chance of at least two goals and a 38.5% probability both sides score. On the margin, a home win by two or more is the leading single outcome at 32.8%, followed by a one-goal home win (27.2%) and a draw (24.8%).

The data points firmly to a Jonava win: they carry a 60% probability from the model and face an opponent who have not won away in their last three. Still, the lack of head-to-head context and small recent samples keep confidence at medium, and the model leaves roughly a quarter of the probability on the draw. A narrow home victory — 1-0 is the projected scoreline — is the coherent expectation, with a home win by two or more the leading margin outcome.