Jõhvi Phoenix2-2Tabasalu

Round 24 of the Estonian Esiliiga B brings Jõhvi Phoenix and Tabasalu together at Heino Lipu staadion for the first time, with no prior meetings between the two sides on record. League table positions are not available for this fixture, so the preview rests on recent form, home/away splits, and the Poisson goal model.

The model is emphatic: it gives Jõhvi Phoenix a 96.9% win probability, with a projected score of 3-0 and an expected goal difference of roughly 3.8. Tabasalu's away record over their last two matches shows no goals scored, which the model reflects in a very low away scoring projection.

Jõhvi Phoenix come into this match on the back of five results that read, most recent first: win, draw, loss, loss, loss. That amounts to one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five, with an average of 1 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per game.

At home, the sample is smaller: two matches, one win and one loss, with an average of 2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The home scoring rate is twice their overall average, though the defensive numbers are similar to their recent overall figure. The last match was on 2026-08-15, giving them five days of rest.

Tabasalu's recent form shows two wins, a draw and two defeats in their last five, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Their most recent result, listed first, is a win, before which they had a loss, a win, a loss and a draw.

Away from home, the picture is much bleaker. In their last two away matches they have lost both, scored no goals and conceded an average of 2.5 per game. The away sample is small, but the pattern is stark: no away goals in two matches, and a defensive record that concedes nearly twice as many as their overall average.

There are no prior meetings between Jõhvi Phoenix and Tabasalu on record. With an empty head-to-head sample, there is no historical basis to weigh one side against the other in this fixture. The matchup is effectively a fresh start for both clubs.

Jõhvi Phoenix have played two home matches in the data, winning one and losing one. Their home scoring average of 2 goals per game is double their overall average of 1, while their home conceded average of 1.5 is slightly above their overall 1.4. The sample is very small, so these splits should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.

Tabasalu have played two away matches, both losses, and have yet to score on the road. Their away conceded average of 2.5 is well above their overall 1.4, while their away scoring average of 0 is a clear drop from their overall 1.2. Again, only two matches are on record, limiting the strength of any conclusion.

Tabasalu enter this match on a short turnaround. Their last game was on 2026-08-16, four days before kick-off, which the data flags as a congested schedule. Jõhvi Phoenix had their last match on 2026-08-15, giving them five days of rest, one day more than their opponents.

No league table data is available for either side, so it is unclear how their recent results compare to the rest of the division. Both teams are also working from very small home/away samples, which naturally adds uncertainty to any projection. Tabasalu's away scoring drought is the single most distinctive factor in the data, as it heavily shapes the model's expected goal difference.

The Poisson goal model sets a win probability of 96.9% for Jõhvi Phoenix, with a draw at 2.8% and a Tabasalu win at 0.3%. The projected score is 3-0, built on expected values of 3.99 goals for the home side and 0.15 for the visitors. Model confidence is rated as medium.

The most common individual scorelines in the model are 3-0 and 4-0, each with a 17.2% probability, followed by 5-0 at 13.7%. The model projects around 4.14 total goals, with a 91.6% chance of at least two goals, a 77.7% chance of at least three, and a 58.4% chance of at least four. The probability of both teams scoring is just 13.7%, pointing to a likely clean sheet for the home side.

On the winning margin, the model gives Jõhvi Phoenix an 88.2% chance of winning by two or more goals, and an 8.7% chance of winning by exactly one. The chance of a draw is 2.8%, while an away win by one goal is rated at 0.3% and an away win by two or more at 0%. The projected margin is therefore decisively in the home side's favour.

All available data points to a comfortable home victory. Jõhvi Phoenix have the stronger recent form, a better home scoring record, and face a Tabasalu side that has not scored in either of its two away matches on record. The model, despite its medium confidence, assigns a near-certain probability to a home win with a projected 3-0 scoreline.

The main caveats are the small sample sizes for home/away splits and the absence of league table context. If Tabasalu's away scoring issues are a short-term blip rather than a persistent pattern, or if Jõhvi Phoenix's recent inconsistency resurfaces, the margin could be narrower than the model suggests. Even so, an away result is an extreme outlier in the projections, and the data collectively supports a Jõhvi Phoenix win as the most likely outcome.