Jeddeloh II5-2Heidenheim

This DFB-Pokal first-round tie sends Heidenheim to the HASKAMP-Arena, where Jeddeloh II are strongly favored. The model gives the home side a 76.7% win probability and projects a 2-0 scoreline. With no league standings available, recent form and the model's output carry the analysis.

Jeddeloh II have won two of their last three home matches, losing the other, with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Their last five matches overall include two wins and three defeats, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game.

Heidenheim's away record over the last 20 matches is three wins, four draws and thirteen defeats, a 15% win rate, with 1.1 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game. Their last five matches overall show two wins, one draw and two losses, with 2.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game.

There are no prior meetings on record between these two sides, so the head-to-head sample is empty. The preview must rely on current form and the model's projections rather than historical results.

At the HASKAMP-Arena, Jeddeloh II have a 66.7% win rate in their last three home games, conceding just 0.67 per match. Heidenheim's away form is far weaker, with a 15% win rate and 2.05 goals conceded per game over a 20-match sample.

Rest days differ: Jeddeloh II have had eight days since their last match, Heidenheim five. The model's confidence is medium, and with no head-to-head meetings on record, the projection leans heavily on the home side's recent venue form. The absence of league standings also limits the context.

The Poisson model gives Jeddeloh II a 76.7% win probability, with a 16.5% chance of a draw and a 6.8% chance for Heidenheim. The projected score is 2-0, and the most likely exact scorelines are 2-0 (16.6%), 1-0 (15.2%), and 3-0 (12.1%). The model projects about 2.67 total goals, with a 74.5% probability of at least two goals and a 49.8% probability of at least three. It also gives a 52% chance of a home win by two or more goals, while the probability of both sides scoring is only 34%.

The data collectively points to a home win by a comfortable margin, with the model marking Jeddeloh II as overwhelming favorites. The absence of any head-to-head record and the medium confidence level are the main reasons for caution, but the home side's strong recent home form and Heidenheim's poor away record reinforce the projection. A Heidenheim upset would require a significant deviation from the underlying numbers.