Jahn Regensburg II0-2ASV Cham

Jahn Regensburg II host ASV Cham in round six of the German Oberliga Bayern Nord at Sportpark am Kaulbachweg. The model assigns a dominant 68.1% win probability to the visitors, with the home side at just 4.1% and the draw at 27.8%. That projection is underpinned by contrasting recent form: the hosts have lost their most recent match and have conceded 2.6 goals per game across their last five, while ASV Cham arrive on a four-match winning streak.

The blank head-to-head record means there is no historical basis for comparison, leaving the model to rely on current form and venue splits. Both teams are also playing on a short turnaround, with Jahn Regensburg II last in action three days before this match and ASV Cham four days before. The away side's defensive numbers away from home are notably strong, conceding zero goals across their last two away games.

Jahn Regensburg II enter this match without a recorded league table position in the data. Their most recent five matches, listed most recent first, are LWLDD: a loss, a win, a loss, and two draws. Over that stretch they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.6 goals conceded per game, a concession rate that stands out in the data.

At home in their last two matches, they have one win and one draw, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game — a lower concession rate than their overall recent average of 2.6, though the sample is small.

ASV Cham also have no recorded league table position in the data. Their last five results, most recent first, are LWWWW, meaning they have won their last four matches. They have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.4 goals conceded per game in that period, the latter figure being the stingiest among the two sides' recent data.

Away from home, they have won both of their last two matches, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.0 per game. That perfect defensive away record contributes to the model's favorable projection for the visitors.

No prior meetings between Jahn Regensburg II and ASV Cham are on record. With no head-to-head history, the sample is too small to draw any conclusions from past encounters.

The model therefore relies on each side's recent form and venue splits rather than any historical pattern.

This fixture is at Sportpark am Kaulbachweg, where Jahn Regensburg II have played two recorded home matches, earning one win and one draw. Their home scoring average of 1.5 goals per game is slightly above their overall recent average of 1.4, while their home concession average of 1.0 is below the 2.6 they have conceded across all recent matches.

For ASV Cham, away form has been perfect over a sample of two matches, with two wins and no goals conceded. Their away scoring rate of 2.0 per game is above their overall recent average of 1.8. These splits are based on small samples, but they underpin the model's assignment of a higher expected goal total to the away side.

Both teams enter on a short turnaround, with Jahn Regensburg II having played three days prior and ASV Cham four days prior. The model flags both as congested, meaning neither side has had a full week of recovery.

The absence of league table data and the lack of head-to-head meetings leave the model reliant on recent results and venue splits. There is no promotion or relegation adjustment indicated for either side in the data. The home side's recent concession rate is the most notable point: an average of 2.6 goals allowed per game in their last five, compared to the away side's 0.4.

The Poisson model gives ASV Cham a 68.1% probability of winning, with a 27.8% chance of a draw and only 4.1% for the home side. The projected score is 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.15 for Jahn Regensburg II and 1.32 for ASV Cham. The model's most likely exact scoreline is 0-1 at 30.4%, followed by 0-0 at 23.1% and 0-2 at 20.0%.

In terms of total goals, the model projects about 1.47 goals combined. The probability of two or more goals is 43.1%, and three or more is 18.3%. The chance that both teams score at least once is just 10.2%, indicating the model sees a low-scoring game tilted heavily toward the away side.

On the winning margin, an away win by two or more goals is the most likely margin at 34.6%, slightly ahead of an away win by one goal at 33.5%. The draw sits at 27.8%. The confidence level is medium, reflecting the small samples and missing table data.

The data points to a clear away win, with ASV Cham's recent form and defensive solidity making them the model's strong favorite. The home side's concession rate of 2.6 per game over their last five is the highest in the available data, and the model projects them to manage only 0.15 expected goals. A 0-1 scoreline is the projected result, and the away win probability of 68.1% is the largest single outcome in the model.

That said, the confidence is only medium. The home side's defensive record at home has been better than their overall recent figure (1.0 conceded per game in two matches), which could narrow the margin. The draw probability of 27.8% is not trivial, and if the home side contains the visitors better than the model expects, the outcome could be tighter. The model's projection would be undermined by a higher-scoring home performance than their expected 0.15 goals suggests.