Jahn Regensburg II4-2Ammerthal

This is the first recorded meeting between Jahn Regensburg II and Ammerthal, with neither side having a league table on record. The model gives Ammerthal a narrow edge, with a 41.6% win probability against 21.2% for the home side, while a draw sits at 37.2%.

Jahn Regensburg II took one win, one draw and one defeat from their last three home matches, averaging one goal scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their recent five games show an average of 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, with a most-recent sequence of WLLWL.

Ammerthal are unbeaten in their last three away games, with one win and two draws, averaging one goal scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Over their last five matches overall they average 1.2 goals scored and two conceded, with a sequence of LDLWL.

No prior meetings are on record, so head-to-head history offers no guide to this fixture.

At home, Jahn Regensburg II have allowed 1.33 goals per game across their last three, a slightly better defensive return than the 2.2 per game they have conceded over their recent five. Ammerthal have been notably tighter away, conceding 0.67 per game on the road compared with two per game over their last five overall.

Rest is near level, with the hosts having six days since their last match and the visitors five. The absence of prior meetings and the lack of table data for both sides leave the model with limited context, which may explain its medium confidence.

The model makes Ammerthal the most likely winner at 41.6%, with the draw at 37.2% and a home win at 21.2%. The most probable exact scoreline is 0-0 at 24.4%, even though an away win is the leading result. Total goals are projected at about 1.41, with a 41.2% chance of two or more goals and a 24.1% chance that each side scores at least once. The margin projection is led by the draw at 37.2%, followed by an away win by one goal at 26.8% and an away win by two or more at 14.8%.

The data points toward an away win, but it is a modest edge over the draw. The low expected goal total suggests a tight contest, and the model's medium confidence reflects the thin record on both sides. That projection would be wrong if the home side's recent attacking output, 1.6 goals per game over their last five, carries into this match.