Ipswich TownvsLe Havre

This pre-season friendly sees Ipswich Town host Le Havre at Portman Road. The standout numbers are Ipswich's robust home record — 12 wins in their last 20 matches at this ground — and Le Havre's away struggles, with 10 defeats in their last 20 on the road. The model reflects that gap, giving Ipswich a 76.2% win probability.

Both sides are in preparation for the new season, but the time since their last outings differs: Ipswich played six days ago, while Le Havre's last match was eleven days ago. With no previous meetings between the clubs on record, this fixture is defined by the teams' respective recent form rather than any head-to-head precedent.

Ipswich Town's home form over their last 20 matches is strong: 12 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, a 60% win rate. They average 1.7 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per home match, a scoring rate that is slightly higher than their recent overall average of 1.6 goals per game.

Their most recent five results read LWDDW, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. While that run includes a pair of wins and draws, the longer home sample provides the more reliable picture of their strength at Portman Road.

Le Havre's away record is considerably weaker: 4 wins, 6 draws, and 10 defeats in their last 20 matches away from home, a 20% win rate. They average 0.9 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per away match, which underscores the difficulty they have found on the road.

Their most recent five results, however, are better: WWLDD, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded. This recent upturn is based on a small sample, but it represents a short-term improvement over their longer away record.

There are no prior meetings on record between Ipswich Town and Le Havre. With an empty head-to-head history, this fixture cannot be assessed through past results between the two sides. The sample is effectively zero, so any projection relies on each team's current form rather than historical precedent.

The data supplied covers Ipswich's home matches and Le Havre's away matches specifically. Ipswich's home record is dominant, while Le Havre's away record is poor. However, no overall table or all-matches record was provided, so it is not possible to compare these splits to each side's wider form beyond what is shown.

Ipswich's home scoring average of 1.7 goals exceeds Le Havre's away scoring average of 0.9, while Ipswich's concession rate of 0.75 is roughly half of Le Havre's away concession rate of 1.55. These splits are central to the model's projection.

Both teams have had different rest periods: Ipswich last played on 2026-07-29, six days before this match, while Le Havre's last match was on 2026-07-24, an eleven-day gap. The match is a club friendly, and no data on lineups or player availability is available.

The model's confidence is medium, indicating that while a home win is the favored outcome, the projection carries some uncertainty. The lack of head-to-head meetings adds to that uncertainty, and friendlies often produce results that deviate from longer-term trends.

The Poisson model assigns Ipswich Town a 76.2% win probability, a draw at 17.1%, and Le Havre at 6.7%. The projected scoreline is 2-0, with expected goals of 2.1 for Ipswich and 0.45 for Le Havre. Among exact scorelines, 2-0 is the most likely at 17.3%, followed by 1-0 at 16.4% and 3-0 at 12.1%.

The model's medium confidence reflects the limited information available for this fixture, particularly the absence of a head-to-head record. Even so, the gap in expected goals is wide, and the model clearly favors the home side.

The data collectively points to an Ipswich Town win. Their home form is strong, Le Havre's away form is weak, and the model places the home side's win probability at 76.2%. The projected 2-0 scoreline aligns with the expected goal values.

That said, this is a friendly with no prior meetings on record, and the model's medium confidence advises against treating the projection as certainty. If Le Havre's recent improvement continues into this match, they could outperform the model's assessment. Based on the available numbers, however, Ipswich are the clear favorite.