Ipswich Town1-0Le Havre

This pre-season friendly brings together Ipswich Town and Le Havre at Portman Road. The data shows a clear contrast between Ipswich's strong home record and Le Havre's struggles on the road. The model gives Ipswich a 76.2% chance of winning, with a projected scoreline of 2-0.

There is no head-to-head history between the two clubs, so the projection rests entirely on each side's recent results and home/away splits. With medium confidence, the model's lean is toward a home win, though the exact scoreline carries some uncertainty.

Ipswich Town come into this match having won 12, drawn 6, and lost 2 of their last 20 home games, a 60% win rate. They have averaged 1.7 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per home match, suggesting a solid defensive base and dependable attacking output.

Their last five results overall read LWDDW, with the most recent result first. In that stretch they have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Their most recent fixture was on July 29, giving them six days of rest since that match.

Le Havre's away record over their last 20 games is 4 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, a 20% win rate. They have averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per away match, indicating a tendency to concede more than they score on the road.

In their last five results overall, they have gone WWLDD, with the most recent result first, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Their last match was July 24, meaning they have had 11 days of rest heading into this friendly.

There are no prior meetings between Ipswich Town and Le Havre on record.

With no head-to-head history to draw upon, the fixture offers no direct precedent. The sample is too small to lean on past encounters, so the model's output is based solely on the teams' recent form and home/away splits rather than any historical pattern.

The match will be played at Portman Road, Ipswich's home ground. Ipswich's home record over the last 20 matches is strong, with 12 wins, 6 draws, and only 2 losses, a 60% win rate.

Le Havre's away form is notably weaker, with just 4 wins in 20 and a 20% win rate. The contrast between Ipswich's home strength and Le Havre's away struggles is the clearest split in the data and a key reason the model leans heavily toward the home side.

The rest differential is notable: Ipswich have had six days since their last match, while Le Havre have had 11 days. That gap is worth noting, though its impact on a pre-season friendly is difficult to quantify from the available data.

There is no head-to-head history to inform the projection, and this is a friendly, so the competitive context differs from a league fixture. The model rates its confidence as medium, which signals that the projected scoreline and probabilities should be read with some caution rather than as a foregone conclusion.

The Poisson model gives Ipswich a 76.2% win probability, a 17.1% chance of a draw, and a 6.7% chance of an away win. The projected scoreline is 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.1 for Ipswich and 0.45 for Le Havre.

The most likely exact scorelines are 2-0 (17.3%), 1-0 (16.4%), and 3-0 (12.1%). The model's most likely outcome is an Ipswich win. With medium confidence, the model's exact scoreline should be treated as a projection rather than a guarantee.

The data points to a comfortable Ipswich win. Their home record is strong, Le Havre's away record is poor, and the model assigns a 76.2% probability to the home side. The absence of any head-to-head meetings leaves no direct historical counterweight.

The projection could be off if Le Havre's recent scoring rate (1.8 per game in their last five) carries over more than their away average suggests, or if Ipswich's defensive numbers soften. On the available evidence, the most likely outcome is a home win, with 2-0 the most probable scoreline.