Indiana Fever106-92New York Liberty

This WNBA fixture sends the New York Liberty to Gainbridge Fieldhouse to face the Indiana Fever. The model gives the visitors a 53.9% win probability against 46.1% for the hosts, with a projected score of 90-91 and a margin of just -1.1 points from Indiana's perspective. Neither team's overall league record is available, so the analysis leans on each side's last 20 games at this venue and their most recent five outings.

Both sides enter on short rest: Indiana had three days between matches, New York two, and both are flagged for the compressed turnaround. The numbers point to a tight, high-scoring contest, with the expected combined total hovering near 181 points.

Indiana's last 20 home games show a 12-8 record, a 60% win rate, with average scores of 96.7 points for and 90.7 against. That is a +6.0 scoring margin at home, the strongest of the two venue splits in this fixture.

More recently, the Fever are 3-2 over their last five matches overall, with averages of 98.2 scored and 94.6 conceded. The recent sample has seen even more offense, but also more defensive leakage. Their most recent game came on 2026-08-08.

New York's last 20 road games are 11-9, a 55% win rate, with 90.95 points scored per game and 89.8 conceded. That is a +1.15 margin, less dominant than Indiana's home split.

However, their recent overall form is stronger: a 4-1 run in the last five, with 87.4 points scored and just 76.6 allowed. That defensive improvement stands out against the broader away sample. They last played on 2026-08-09.

The two franchises have met seven times on record, with New York winning four and Indiana three. Total points are remarkably close: Indiana has scored 643 to New York's 636, an average combined score of 182.7 per meeting.

The most recent meeting on 2026-07-19 saw Indiana win 108-88 at home. That result is part of a head-to-head series that has produced high scoring, with no meeting coming anywhere near a low combined total.

This game is at Indiana's home arena, where the Fever have gone 12-8 over their last 20 with a +6.0 average margin. New York's corresponding road split over their last 20 is 11-9 with a +1.15 margin, so the home side holds the more lopsided venue record.

The venue data favors Indiana, while the recent form data favors New York. Indiana scores more efficiently at home than their recent average, but New York's recent defensive numbers are tighter than their road average, setting up a conflict between home-floor advantage and momentum.

Both teams are on a short turnaround, with the Liberty having one fewer rest day than the Fever. The congested schedule affects both sides, and the one-day difference is small but could be meaningful in a projected one-point game.

No league table data was provided, so standings and season-long context are unavailable. That makes the venue-specific and recent samples the primary evidence. The model's medium confidence also reflects the narrow margin and the lack of broader context.

The normal-distribution margin model gives New York a 53.9% chance of winning and Indiana 46.1%. The expected score is 89.9 to 91.0, producing a projected margin of -1.1 points for the home team.

The model's most likely outcome is a New York Liberty victory. The projected combined total is about 180.9 points, rounding to 181. With medium confidence, the model sees a close game that could easily tilt the other way given the slim margin.

The data collectively points to a narrow New York Liberty win. The Liberty's recent 4-1 form and tighter defensive numbers outweigh the Fever's stronger home record in the model's estimation.

If Indiana's home scoring advantage holds, they are well positioned to drive the margin in their favor. If New York's recent defensive profile travels, the visitors should win by close to the projected point. A one-point projected margin leaves ample room for either outcome, making this a low-certainty call despite the model's lean to the away side.