Indiana Fever84-86Las Vegas Aces

The Indiana Fever host the Las Vegas Aces at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in a WNBA regular-season fixture. The model's most likely outcome is a home win, with Indiana given a 76.2% win probability and a projected score of 97-89. That projection is built on a clear edge in recent form and scoring output, though both teams enter on short rest.

Indiana have won four of their last five matches, averaging 109.6 points per game in that stretch. Las Vegas have lost three of their last five, averaging 81.6 points. The head-to-head record is also in Indiana's favor, 6-4 over the last 10 meetings, including wins in the two most recent games.

The model's certainty is medium, so while the Fever are the clear pick, the gap is not a certainty. The combination of a strong home scoring record and a lower-scoring away attack for the Aces gives Indiana the bulk of the probability.

Indiana Fever come into this game without a league table position available in the data, but their recent form is clear. Over their last five matches (most recent first: LWWWW), they have won four, with an average of 109.6 points scored and 95.4 conceded. That scoring rate is above their home average of 96.35 over the last 20 home games.

At home, the Fever have a 13-7 record in their last 20 games, a 65% win rate. They average 96.35 points scored and 89.4 conceded at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Their last match came on August 2, four days before this fixture, which counts as a short turnaround.

Las Vegas Aces have also gone 13-7 in their last 20 away games, a 65% win rate, but their recent form is weaker. Their last five results (most recent first: LLWWL) include two wins and three losses, with an average of 81.6 points scored and 78.8 conceded. The scoring output is below their away average of 88.45.

The Aces' most recent match was on August 3, three days before this game, another congested turnaround. Their away defensive average of 83.65 conceded is lower than Indiana's home average of 89.4 conceded, so they have shown the ability to limit opponents on the road.

The two teams have met 10 times in the data, with Indiana Fever winning 6 and Las Vegas Aces winning 4. Indiana have scored 852 total points to Las Vegas's 793, an average of 164.5 combined points per meeting. Even the lowest-scoring game in the sample produced 135 combined points, so low-scoring outcomes are not a feature of this fixture.

Indiana have won the two most recent meetings, both hosted by Las Vegas: a 109-75 win on July 13, 2026, and an 84-68 win on July 5, 2026. That makes three wins for Indiana in the last four meetings. The eight meetings in 2025 were split 4-4.

Three of the ten meetings have been decided by single digits; the other seven were decided by double digits.

Indiana's home record over the last 20 games is 13-7 (65% win rate), with an average of 96.35 points scored and 89.4 conceded. Las Vegas's away record over the same sample size is also 13-7 (65%), with averages of 88.45 scored and 83.65 conceded. The projected total of 186 points is higher than the sum of Indiana's home scoring average plus the Aces' away conceded average (96.35 + 83.65 = 180).

The Fever's home scoring average is 7.9 points higher than the Aces' away scoring average, while the Aces' away defensive average is 5.75 points better than the Fever's home defensive average. This implies the margin may be driven by Indiana's offense rather than Las Vegas's defense.

Both teams have identical 13-7 records in these splits, so the scoring differential is the distinguishing factor.

Both teams are on congested schedules. Indiana have had four days of rest since August 2, and Las Vegas have had three days since August 3. Short turnarounds can increase variance in scoring and defensive performance.

Indiana's recent scoring rate of 109.6 points per game over their last five matches is the most striking number in the data. It exceeds both their home average (96.35) and the model's expected value of 96.7. On the other side, Las Vegas's recent scoring rate of 81.6 is below both their away average (88.45) and the model's expected value of 88.5.

No league table data is available for either team, so standings context is absent. The projections are based solely on the recent form, head-to-head results, and home/away splits provided.

The model, based on a normal-distribution margin calculation, gives Indiana a 76.2% win probability and Las Vegas a 23.8% chance. The projected score is 97-89, with an expected margin of 8.2 points. The expected values are 96.7 for the Fever and 88.5 for the Aces, closely matching the projected totals.

A 76.2% win probability means the model expects Indiana to win in roughly three out of four similar matchups. That is a solid but not overwhelming edge, and the medium certainty rating indicates that the margin distribution is wide enough to leave room for an upset.

The model's most likely outcome is an Indiana Fever win at 76.2%.

The data collectively points to an Indiana Fever win. They have the better recent form, a higher scoring output at home, a 6-4 head-to-head lead, and the model gives them a 76.2% probability. The projected margin of 8.2 points is meaningful, though the medium certainty tempers any assumption of a comfortable night.

The principal risk to this projection is regression from Indiana's recent scoring burst. If the Fever return to their home average of 96.35 rather than their recent 109.6, the margin narrows. Las Vegas's road defense, which has allowed only 83.65 points per game, could also keep the score tighter if it shows up against a Fever team scoring at a higher rate.

Overall, the model's most likely outcome is a home win, and the supporting numbers align in that direction. A Las Vegas victory would require both a defensive performance closer to their road average and a scoring output above their recent form.