Iberia 1999vsJagiellonia Białystok

This Europa League fixture brings Iberia 1999 and Jagiellonia Białystok together at Mikheil Meskhi Stadium, just a week after their only prior meeting. The model gives the visitors a 61.9% win probability and projects a 1-2 scoreline. Jagiellonia also hold the edge in recent form.

Iberia 1999 have no league table data on record, so their recent home matches are the main reference. In their last four at Mikheil Meskhi Stadium they have 1W 1D 2L, averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2 conceded. Their last five matches overall read LLWDD, with an average of 1.2 scored and 2 conceded.

Jagiellonia Białystok also lack league table data. Their last four away matches show 2W 1D 1L, with 2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Their last five overall are WDLWW, averaging 1.8 scored and 1 conceded.

The only recorded meeting between these sides came on 2026-08-20, with Jagiellonia winning 4-0 at home. That single result is the entire head-to-head sample, so it is too small to form a reliable pattern. The four-goal margin, though, is the only direct comparison available.

Iberia's recent home record is modest: 1W 1D 2L, with an average of 1.25 goals scored and 2 conceded per match. Jagiellonia's away record is stronger at 2W 1D 1L, with 2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match. The visitors' away scoring rate stands out against Iberia's home defensive numbers.

Both sides have had seven days of rest since their last match, so neither has a scheduling edge. The lack of league table data and the single prior head-to-head meeting make this projection less certain than usual. Jagiellonia's recent form is the clearest available signal.

The model favors Jagiellonia with a 61.9% win probability, against 20.4% for Iberia and 17.7% for a draw. The projected score is 1-2 in favor of the visitors, and the most likely exact scoreline is 1-2 at 8.4%. About 4.13 total goals are expected, with a 91.7% chance of at least two goals and a 59.1% chance of four or more. The largest margin category is an away win by two or more goals, at 41.6%.

The data points to a Jagiellonia victory, and the model expects it by a comfortable margin in most scenarios. That is consistent with the 4-0 result in the only prior meeting and their stronger recent form. The main caveat is medium model confidence, so a draw or a narrow home win, while less likely, would not be a complete surprise.