Huesca4-0FC Andorra

This friendly at Estadio El Alcoraz marks the start of Huesca's 2026 season after a 68-day break from competitive action. Neither side has league table data on record, so the preview leans on recent form, home and away splits, and a short head-to-head history.

The decisive numbers are close. Huesca's home record over their last 20 matches shows 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, while Andorra's away record is 8 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses. The model gives the home side a 38.3% win probability, compared to 33.8% for Andorra and 27.9% for a draw, with a projected scoreline of 1-1.

Huesca have no recorded league table position, but their home form over the last 20 fixtures is well defined: 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game. That is a win rate of 35%, slightly below the break-even mark.

Their most recent five matches have been less encouraging: a draw followed by four defeats (DLDLL), with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Their last match was on 31 May 2026, and the 68-day gap since then means this friendly is effectively a season opener for Huesca.

FC Andorra also lack league table data. Away from home in their last 20 matches, they have 8 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. That gives them a 40% away win rate, slightly higher than Huesca's home rate.

Their recent form is mixed: WLLLW in the last five, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. They last played on 24 July 2026, only 14 days before this fixture, so they arrive with more recent match rhythm than their hosts.

The two clubs have met twice on record, and neither has come away victorious. Both matches ended level: a 1-1 draw in Andorra on 25 January 2026 and a 2-2 draw in Huesca on 8 November 2025.

Across those two meetings, each side scored three goals, totaling six in all, an average of three per game. One of the two meetings saw two or fewer total goals. With such a small sample, the head-to-head offers little basis for predicting the outcome.

Huesca's home split over their last 20 matches shows a 35% win rate, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game. Andorra's away split over the same length shows a 40% win rate, with 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.

The visiting side have been more productive on the road, but they also concede more. The net difference is small: Huesca's home goal differential is -0.05, while Andorra's away differential is +0.1. This suggests the venue is unlikely to be a decisive factor.

The most prominent factor is the rest gap. Huesca have not played competitively in 68 days, making this their first match of the season, while Andorra played 14 days ago. That difference in recent activity could affect sharpness, and the model does not explicitly account for it.

There is also limited reference data. No league table positions are available, and the head-to-head consists of just two meetings, both draws. These gaps contribute to the model's medium confidence in its projections.

The Poisson model assigns a 38.3% probability to a home win, 27.9% to a draw, and 33.8% to an away win. This makes Huesca the most likely outcome, though the margin over Andorra is a modest 4.5 percentage points.

The projected score is 1-1, with expected goals of 1.22 for Huesca and 1.13 for Andorra. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%, followed by 1-0 at 11.6% and 0-1 at 10.7%. The model's confidence is medium, so these probabilities should be read with some caution.

The data points to a close contest. Huesca's home record is nearly balanced, Andorra's away record is slightly above .500, and the two prior meetings both ended level. The model's aggregate probabilities give a narrow edge to the home side, even though the projected score is 1-1.

Huesca's recent poor form is a concern, while Andorra's away scoring rate is stronger. If the home side cannot shake off the 68-day layoff, Andorra could take advantage. But the model's most likely outcome is a Huesca win, and the friendly context adds uncertainty to any prediction.