Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo1-3Ventforet Kofu

This Emperors Cup meeting pairs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo with Ventforet Kofu at Daiwa House PREMIST DOME. The model gives Sapporo an 88.8% win probability and projects a 2-0 scoreline. The two sides have no prior meetings on record.

Sapporo have won two of their last three home matches, averaging 1.33 goals scored and conceded. Their last five results, most recent first, are L-L-W-W-D, with 1.2 goals for and 1.4 against per game. They are playing on a four-day turnaround.

Ventforet Kofu have lost all four of their most recent away matches, scoring 0.25 and conceding 2.5 per game. Their last five results, most recent first, are L-D-L-L-L, with averages of 0.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. This gives them a 0% away win rate across the four-match sample.

No prior meetings between Sapporo and Kofu are on record, so the head-to-head sample is too small to lean on. The historical record offers no basis for prediction beyond current form data.

Sapporo's home numbers are slightly better than their overall recent form: 1.33 goals each way at home versus 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded across the last five. Kofu's away record is worse than their overall run, with 0.25 scored and 2.5 conceded on the road compared to 0.4 and 2.2 overall. The venue data therefore amplifies the existing gap.

Both teams played four days ago, leaving a congested schedule for each side. Kofu's away form is the starkest negative: four consecutive defeats with 0.25 goals scored per game. The lack of any prior meetings between the clubs adds uncertainty to the model's assessment.

The model, at medium confidence, gives Sapporo an 88.8% win probability, with a draw at 9.4% and an away win at 1.8%. It projects a 2-0 scoreline (expected goals 2.66–0.22), with the highest-probability exact scores being 2-0, 3-0, and 1-0. Total goals are expected around 2.88, with a 78.1% chance of at least two goals and an 18.3% chance both teams score. A home win by two or more carries 69% probability, versus 19.8% for a one-goal margin.

The data points to a home victory, with Sapporo's home form, Kofu's away struggles, and the model's 88.8% win probability all aligned. A 2-0 scoreline is the projected result, and the model gives a 69% chance of a multi-goal margin. For an upset, Kofu would need to overturn an away record of four straight losses.