Herediano0-3Sporting San José

Neither side has a league table record available, so this fifth-round fixture rests on recent form and the model. Herediano have won none of their last three home matches, and Sporting San José are winless in their last three away trips. The model's headline projection is a draw.

Herediano's last five matches read WLLLD, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. At home, that output drops to 0.33 scored and 1.33 conceded per game, with two draws and one defeat in three.

Sporting San José's recent form is WLLDD, with an average of one goal scored and 1.2 conceded over five matches. On the road, they have averaged 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded, losing two of three.

The two clubs have no prior meetings on record, leaving no head-to-head data to assess. With a zero-match sample, historical leanings cannot be established.

Herediano's home splits are worse than their overall recent numbers, both offensively and defensively. Sporting San José also concede more away from home, while their scoring rate drops from one per game overall to 0.67 on the road.

Herediano face a congested schedule, playing with four days of rest after their last match on 19 August. Sporting San José have five days between games. The absence of prior meetings and any league table data adds inherent uncertainty to projections.

The model gives a draw 45.7% probability, the most likely outcome, with home and away wins at 22.5% and 31.9%. Projected scoreline is 0-0, and the most likely exact scores are 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0. Combined expected goals sit at roughly 1.03, with only a 27.5% chance of two or more goals and a 15.9% chance both teams score. Confidence is medium.

The data points to a cautious, low-scoring match with a draw as the most probable result. Any winning margin would likely be a single goal, with away by one (23.7%) the largest non-draw category. A decisive result would require a significant improvement in finishing on either side relative to their recent output.