Hegelmann B3-2Ekranas

This Round 21 I Lyga fixture sees Hegelmann B host Ekranas at Raudondvario stadionas, with no previous meetings between the sides on record. The model gives Ekranas a 45.1% win probability, the highest of the three outcomes, while the hosts sit at 29.6%. Both teams come in on seven days of rest after playing on 14 August.

Hegelmann B's league table position is not available in the data. In their last three home matches they have one win and two losses, averaging 1 goal scored and 2.33 conceded. Their most recent five matches overall read L-W-L-L-L, with an average of 1 scored and 2.6 conceded per game.

Ekranas also lack a recorded league table position. Their last two away matches produced one win and one loss, with an average of 1 goal scored and 1.5 conceded. Overall form over the last five is L-W-D-L-L, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.6 per game.

There are no prior meetings between Hegelmann B and Ekranas on record. This fixture will be the first encounter, so head-to-head history offers no basis for prediction.

At Raudondvario stadionas, Hegelmann B have won one of their last three home matches, conceding an average of 2.33 goals. Ekranas' away sample is just two games, with one win, one loss, and an average of 1.5 conceded. The venue data is thin on both sides.

Both sides have had seven days since their last match, so neither carries a short-turnaround disadvantage. With no league table positions and no head-to-head record, recent form and the model's projections are the main available signals. The limited data, especially the absence of any previous meetings, adds uncertainty to the outlook.

The model's most likely outcome is an Ekranas win at 45.1%, with a draw at 25.2% and a home win at 29.6%. The projected score is 1-1, reflecting expected goal values of 1.2 for Hegelmann B and 1.54 for Ekranas; the most likely exact scorelines are 1-1, 0-1, and 1-2. It projects about 2.73 total goals, with a 75.7% chance of two or more and a 54.7% chance both teams score. Confidence is medium.

The data points toward an away win for Ekranas, who hold the higher win probability and slightly higher expected goal output. The margin is modest, as the single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw and the model's confidence is medium. A home win would require Hegelmann B to improve on their recent scoring and defensive averages, which the current form does not suggest.