Havířov1-3Zbrojovka Brno B

Round 5 of the Moravian-Silesian Football League sees Havířov host Zbrojovka Brno B, with neither side's league-table record available. The model gives the hosts a 70.2% win probability against the visitors' 14.5%, projecting a home victory despite Havířov's winless recent run.

Havířov have not won in their last five matches, recording three defeats and two draws while averaging 2.8 goals conceded per game. At home over their last two fixtures they have one draw and one loss, scoring once per game and conceding 1.5.

Zbrojovka Brno B have won three of their last five overall, but their away record in the same sample is erratic: one win and two defeats in three matches. They have averaged 1.33 goals scored and 3.67 conceded on the road.

No prior meetings between these clubs are on record, so there is no head-to-head history to draw on.

Havířov's home form is modest, with no win in their last two at this ground. Brno B score less away from home (1.33 per game) than their recent overall average (2.2), while conceding heavily on the road at 3.67 per match.

Both teams have had a full week's rest, with nine days for the hosts and seven for the visitors. The model's medium confidence reflects the absence of head-to-head data and the small sample of form available for both sides.

The Poisson model projects a 2-1 home victory, with Havířov's win probability at 70.2% and the draw at 15.3%. The most likely exact scorelines are 2-1, 3-1 and 2-0. The model expects about 4.24 total goals, with a 92.4% chance of at least two goals and a 69.3% probability that both teams find the net. A home win by two or more goals is the leading margin outcome at 50.6%.

The data makes Havířov clear favourites, with the model expecting a multi-goal home win. That view would need revising if Brno B's away defence, which has conceded 3.67 per game, holds up better than the model implies, or if Havířov's recent scoring rate carries over.