Hässleholm0-1Landskrona

This Svenska Cupen tie sees Hässleholm host Landskrona at Österås IP. The home side carry the better recent form into the match, having won four of their last five with an average of two goals scored per game. Landskrona have lost three of their last five and score at an average of 0.6 per game.

The model gives Hässleholm a 66.1% win probability, well clear of the draw (24%) and a Landskrona win (9.9%). No prior meetings are on record between the sides, so the fixture has no head-to-head precedent to inform expectations.

Hässleholm's recent form stands at four wins and one defeat in their last five matches (WWWLW). They have averaged two goals scored per game and 0.6 conceded. No league table data is available for the club, so this recent run is the primary indicator of their current level.

At home, their last two matches have produced one win and one loss, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and one conceded per game. That home sample shows a scoring average below their recent overall figure of two per game, though the sample is limited to two matches.

Landskrona's recent form reads DWLLL, with three losses, one draw and one win in their last five matches. They average 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, with their most recent match also on 14 August.

Their away record over the last three matches is one win and two defeats, with an average of 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded per game. These away numbers are close to their overall recent figures, indicating that their struggles are not specific to playing away. Landskrona's league table position is likewise unavailable in the data.

There are no prior meetings on record between Hässleholm and Landskrona. The fixture therefore has no head-to-head history to reference.

The absence of past encounters means neither side has any prior result advantage over the other, and the match must be evaluated primarily through recent form and the model's estimate.

Hässleholm's home form from their last two matches at Österås IP shows one win and one defeat, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and one conceded per game. That scoring average is lower than their recent overall figure of two goals per game, though the sample is limited to two matches.

Landskrona's away form over the last three matches averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, which is very close to their overall recent averages of 0.6 and 1.2. The differences are small given the limited sample. The venue data therefore offers little evidence of a substantial home advantage, with the broader form gap appearing more significant.

Both teams played their last match on 14 August and therefore enter with six days of rest, meaning neither side has a freshness edge. The cup's single-match format is the context for this fixture, and the model attaches medium confidence to its projection.

The lack of any head-to-head meetings is another factor, as is the absence of league table data for both clubs. The model's projection is thus built primarily on the recent form of each side, with Landskrona's low scoring rate and Hässleholm's higher output being the most influential differences.

The model's win probabilities are 66.1% for Hässleholm, 24% for a draw, and 9.9% for Landskrona, with a medium confidence level. The projected score is 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.59 for the home side and 0.44 for the away side. The most likely exact scorelines are 1-0 (20.9%), 2-0 (16.6%) and 0-0 (13.1%).

The model projects about 2.03 total goals, with a 60.2% probability of two or more goals and 33.2% of three or more. The probability of both teams scoring is only 28.3%, implying a relatively high likelihood that at least one team keeps a clean sheet. In terms of winning margin, a home win by two or more goals is the largest single category at 37%, followed by a one-goal home win at 29.1%.

The data points toward a Hässleholm win, with their recent form and the model's 66.1% probability making them the team most likely to progress. The projected 1-0 scoreline, along with the 37% chance of a home win by two or more, suggests a match where Hässleholm are likely to control the outcome. The chance of a draw is non-negligible at 24%, and the model's medium confidence means the 0-0 scoreline at 13.1% is not a remote possibility.

The main risk to the projection is Landskrona keeping the score close, which would raise the likelihood of a draw or a single-goal margin. A stronger than expected visitor performance could shift the balance, but the data available favours the home side.