Hapoel Be'er Sheva2-1Sabah Baku

Hapoel Be'er Sheva host Sabah Baku at Turner Stadium in a UEFA Champions League fixture. Neither side has a league table record on file, leaving recent form and the statistical model as the primary guides.

The model gives the home side a 64.5% win probability and projects a 1-0 scoreline, with the away side's expected goal output at just 0.15. There are no prior meetings between the clubs, so the matchup is defined almost entirely by current form and the model's output.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva have won three of their last four matches, with the only defeat coming four games back. Over that stretch they have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded.

At home, they have won both of their last two matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and conceding none. Their last match was on 2026-08-11, giving them eight days of rest. No league table data is available for the side, so these recent results are the best available indicators.

Sabah Baku have won four of their last five matches, with the lone loss coming two games ago. They have averaged 2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over that run.

Away from home, their last three matches show two wins and one defeat, averaging 1.67 scored and 1 conceded. That represents a slight drop-off in scoring and a rise in conceding compared to their overall recent averages. They also last played on 2026-08-11, with eight days of rest, matching the home side's schedule.

There are no prior meetings on record between Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Sabah Baku. With no head-to-head history to draw on, the statistical model and recent form must carry the full weight of the projection. No historical edge can be assessed from such an empty record.

At home, Hapoel Be'er Sheva have won both of their last two matches without conceding a goal. Their average of 1.5 scored at home matches their overall recent average, while their defensive record is stronger at home than in the broader run.

Sabah Baku's away form over their last three matches shows two wins and one defeat, with an average of 1.67 scored and 1 conceded. Compared to their overall recent averages of 2 scored and 0.6 conceded, the away numbers are a touch weaker. Small sample sizes caution against overreading these splits.

Both sides enter with eight days of rest since their last match on 2026-08-11, so neither team carries a scheduling disadvantage. The model runs at medium confidence, reflecting the limited data available. No league table data is on record for either side, and there is no head-to-head history to inform the projection.

The most significant factor in the model is the away side's expected goal output of 0.15, which produces a 64.5% home win probability and a likely 1-0 scoreline. The probability of both teams scoring is just 9.7%, pointing to a low-scoring contest.

The Poisson model projects a 1-0 home win, with expected goals of 1.2 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva and 0.15 for Sabah Baku. The most likely outcome is a home win at 64.5%, with a draw at 30.9% and an away win at 4.6%.

Among individual scorelines, 1-0 is the most likely at 31.1%, followed by 0-0 at 26% and 2-0 at 18.6%. The model expects about 1.35 total goals, with a 38.9% probability of two or more and a 15.4% probability of three or more.

The winning-margin distribution shows a 34% chance of a one-goal home win, a 30.5% chance of a home win by two or more, and a 30.9% chance of a draw. Away wins are considered unlikely, with a combined probability of 4.6%. Confidence is medium.

The data points to a narrow home victory. Hapoel Be'er Sheva are favored by the model at 64.5%, with a projected score of 1-0. The away side's expected goal output is very low, and their away numbers are slightly weaker than their overall form.

A draw is the second most likely outcome at 30.9%, and a home win by two or more goals is also a meaningful possibility at 30.5%. The projection would be wrong if Sabah Baku significantly outperformed their expected output, but the available numbers clearly favor the hosts. With medium confidence, the margin of error is real but the direction of the projection is consistent.