Guingamp1-0Boulogne

This is the second round of the Ligue 2 season, and Guingamp host Boulogne at the Stade du Roudourou. No league table data is on record for either side this campaign, so the picture here is built from recent form, home and away splits, and the model's projection. The standout number is how remarkably even the contest looks: the model assigns a 35.6% probability to the draw, with home win at 33.9% and away win at 30.5%.

Both teams have had a long break since their last recorded match — Guingamp on July 22 and Boulogne on July 24 — which adds a layer of uncertainty to the start of this round. The model's expected-goals numbers are low on both sides, hinting at a cautious, tight encounter.

Guingamp arrive on a grim run, having lost all of their last five matches. In that stretch they have averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, suggesting an attack that has gone quiet and a defense that has been breached regularly. Their most recent outing was on July 22, and they have not won in any of those five.

Over a longer sample at home, the picture is more balanced. In their last 20 matches at the Stade du Roudourou, Guingamp have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses — a 35% win rate. They score 1.15 goals per game at home and concede 1.3, meaning home advantage has not translated into a reliable edge.

Boulogne's recent form is also poor, with four losses in their last five — WLLLL — and an average of 1 goal scored and 2.2 conceded in that spell. The one win in that run shows they can still pick up results, but the defensive numbers have deteriorated sharply.

Away from home, over 19 matches, Boulogne have a 7-6-6 record with a 36.8% win rate. They have been notably tighter on the road, conceding only 0.89 goals per game while scoring the same average, which suggests a side that stays compact and relies on fine margins.

The two sides have met twice in recorded history. Guingamp have one win and one draw, while Boulogne have no wins, one draw and one loss. The meetings were high-scoring: a 3-0 home win for Guingamp in January 2026 and a 2-2 draw in Boulogne in October 2025, producing seven goals in total. That averages 3.5 per game, and both meetings finished with more than two goals.

However, with only two fixtures on record, the head-to-head is a thin basis for prediction. The model's projection of a low-scoring match is not directly supported by this history, and the sample is simply too small to carry much weight.

Guingamp's home numbers show a side that is competitive but not dominant: a 35% win rate, with 1.15 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game over their last 20 at the Stade du Roudourou. That home record has produced a split of 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, indicating they are as likely to drop points as to collect them.

Boulogne's away record over 19 matches is nearly identical in structure: 7 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses, for a 36.8% win rate. The notable difference is defensive: they concede 0.89 goals per away game, notably better than Guingamp's home defensive average. That could make the away side harder to break down.

Rest and schedule are the most concrete factors on the table. Guingamp last played on July 22 and Boulogne on July 24, so both have had roughly three weeks since their previous match. That kind of layoff can reduce sharpness, though the data provided does not speak to how either team typically responds to such a gap.

Another factor is the divergence between recent form and longer-term splits. Guingamp's five straight losses stand in contrast to their more even home record, while Boulogne's poor recent form is not reflected in their solid away numbers over 19 matches. Which version of each side shows up is the central uncertainty.

The Poisson model gives the draw the highest probability at 35.6%, with home win at 33.9% and away win at 30.5%. The projected scoreline is 0-0, with expected goals of 0.82 for Guingamp and 0.76 for Boulogne. The most likely individual scorelines are 0-0 (20.6%), 1-0 (16.9%), and 0-1 (15.7%).

The model expects about 1.58 goals in total. The probability of at least two goals is 46.9%, at least three goals is 21.2%, and at least four goals is 7.6%. The chance that both sides score at least once is just 29.8%. On the winning-margin front, a draw leads at 35.6%, followed by a one-goal home win at 22.7% and a one-goal away win at 21.1%; margins of two goals or more are less likely on either side.

The data collectively points to a tight, low-scoring contest with no clear favorite. Guingamp's home form is unremarkable, Boulogne's away form is solid defensively, and the model's projected total of under two goals reinforces the sense of a cautious match. The draw is the single most likely outcome, though the probabilities are so close that a one-goal result either way remains very plausible.

What would make this projection wrong is if one side's recent form is a more reliable signal than the longer-term splits. If Guingamp's five straight losses indicate a deeper problem, or if Boulogne's recent defensive collapses carry over, the match could be more one-sided than the model suggests. On the available evidence, however, the evenness is the most striking feature.