Güemes0-0Atlético de Rafaela

Güemes host Atlético de Rafaela in a Primera B Nacional round 26 fixture with little historical context to draw on: the two sides have no prior meetings on record. The model gives the home side the edge, with a 40.7% win probability and a projected 1-0 scoreline, though the visitors are not far behind at 30.2%.

Güemes come into this match winless in their last five, with two draws and three defeats (DDLLL), averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Their only listed home match ended in a 1-3 loss, leaving them without a home win in the available data.

Atlético de Rafaela’s last five show a more balanced run (DWDWL), averaging 0.6 goals both scored and conceded. In their two away fixtures on record, they have drawn once and lost once, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 per game.

There are no prior meetings between these clubs in the data, so the head-to-head record offers no foundation for prediction. The sample is effectively zero, and the preview rests entirely on current form and the model.

Güemes’ sole home game in the dataset was a defeat, while Atlético de Rafaela have taken one point from two away matches. These samples are tiny, but they suggest neither side has an established home or away fortress in the current campaign.

Güemes have had five days of rest since their last match, compared to ten for Atlético de Rafaela. The visitors’ recent defensive record is notably tighter, conceding 0.6 per game over five, while Güemes have conceded 1.8 in the same span. The absence of prior meetings also makes this fixture harder to pin down.

The model projects about 2.18 combined goals, with a 64.2% chance of at least two goals and a 43.8% chance that both sides score. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0 (13.5%), and the outcome probabilities are close: home win 40.7%, draw 29%, away win 30.2%. The margin distribution is tight—a draw is the single most likely margin at 29%, with home-by-one (23.2%) and away-by-one (19.1%) close behind—and the model’s confidence is medium.

The data points to a low-scoring, tight contest with a slight edge for Güemes, whose 40.7% win probability is the highest single outcome. That edge is narrow, and Rafaela’s stronger recent defensive numbers could easily flip the match. If Güemes’ recent concession rate persists, the projected 1-0 scoreline becomes vulnerable, and a draw or away win is well within the model’s range.