Greuther Fürth2-4Nürnberg

Greuther Fürth and Nürnberg open their 2026-27 2. Bundesliga campaigns at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Both sides are coming off an extended off-season, with Fürth having last played on 26 May and Nürnberg on 17 May. The numbers that matter most come from the Poisson model: a 48% win probability for the home side, 30.7% for the away side, and a projected 2-1 scoreline with roughly 3.67 total goals expected.

The head-to-head record complicates the picture: across four recent meetings, Nürnberg have won twice and drawn twice, scoring ten goals to Fürth's three. Yet the model's probability spread still puts the hosts clearly ahead, driven by their home scoring rates and overall win profile.

Greuther Fürth's last 20 home matches in the 2. Bundesliga produced 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses, a 40% win rate. They averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game at home, yielding a narrow negative goal difference.

Their final five matches of the previous season returned two wins, two draws and one loss, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. That is a slightly more restrained attacking output than the season-long home split, but also a tighter defensive one. The sample of five is small, however.

The long break since 26 May means this is Fürth's first competitive fixture of the new season, so all of this data comes from the prior campaign.

Nürnberg's last 20 away matches in the 2. Bundesliga produced 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses, a 25% win rate. They averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game on the road.

Their final five matches of last season followed a distinct pattern: two wins and three draws, with no defeats, and an average of 1.8 goals scored against 1 conceded. That is a stronger recent spell than the broader away split suggests, though it is only a five-match window.

Nürnberg's last match was on 17 May, giving them a 90-day gap before this season opener. Like their hosts, their available numbers are all from the previous campaign.

On the four meetings on record, Nürnberg hold a clear edge: two wins, two draws, and no defeats for Greuther Fürth. Nürnberg have scored ten goals in those matches, while Fürth have managed three.

The average of 3.25 goals per meeting is high, and only one of the four games saw two or fewer total goals. The two most recent encounters both ended all-square: a 1-1 draw at Fürth and a 2-2 draw at Nürnberg.

With just four matches and none from the current season, this is a small sample. It is worth noting that the home side has not beaten this opponent in any of those meetings, but the record carries limited predictive weight on its own.

At Sportpark Ronhof, Fürth have won 40% of their last 20 home games, drawn 25%, and lost 35%. Their scoring average at home (1.55 per game) is close to Nürnberg's away average (1.45), but they also concede more than they score at home.

Nürnberg's away splits are similarly balanced: 25% wins, 35% draws, and 40% losses, with 1.45 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game. The most notable split is the draw rate — Nürnberg have drawn 35% of their away matches, while Fürth have drawn only 25% at home.

The home advantage in this fixture is therefore modest in the data. Fürth's win rate at home is higher than Nürnberg's win rate away, but the two scoring and conceding profiles are close.

The defining factor for this fixture is the off-season gap. Both teams are playing their first competitive match of the new season, with Fürth coming off 81 days of rest and Nürnberg off 90. There is no current-season form or table position to reference, so every projection is built from last season's splits and the four head-to-head meetings.

The model's confidence is marked as medium, which is appropriate given the absence of fresh data. Long breaks can alter scoring patterns and team personnel, adding uncertainty to any projection.

The most visible divergence in the available data is the recent run: Fürth's final five matches of last season included a defeat, while Nürnberg's final five did not. That difference is small, but it is one of the few signals in an otherwise sparse set of current inputs.

According to the Poisson model, Greuther Fürth are the most likely winner at 48%, with Nürnberg at 30.7% and the draw at 21.2%. The projected score is 2-1, built on expected goals of approximately 2.05 for the home side and 1.62 for the away side.

The total-goals outlook points to an open game. The model expects about 3.67 goals combined, with an 88.1% probability of at least two goals being scored and a 70.9% probability of at least three. There is a 49.9% chance of four or more goals, and a 69.8% chance that each side finds the net at least once.

The winning-margin distribution shows a broad spread. A home win by two or more goals is the single largest segment at 27.7%, followed by a home win by one goal at 20.3% and a draw at 21.2%. Away outcomes are less likely overall, split between one-goal margins (16%) and two-or-more-goal margins (14.7%). The model's medium confidence is evident in that distribution, which is far from concentrated.

The highest-probability exact scoreline is 2-1 at 8.7%, just ahead of 1-1 at 8.5% and 2-2 at 7%. These are precise scorelines rather than match outcomes; the combined probability of a home win remains the model's primary signal.

The data collectively points to a home win as the most plausible result. The model's 48% probability is the single largest outcome, and Fürth's home split shows a higher win rate than Nürnberg's away split. The projected 2-1 scoreline and the goal expectations reinforce the view that the hosts should create and convert enough chances to edge a high-scoring match.

The main counterweight is the head-to-head record, where Nürnberg have been the stronger side across four meetings, winning two and drawing the other two while outscoring Fürth 10-3. The away side also finished the previous season with five matches without a defeat.

The verdict would be wrong if the long off-season has reset the teams' relative levels more than the model accounts for, or if Nürnberg's recent results and head-to-head superiority carry into the opener. The medium confidence rating leaves room for a draw or an away win, but the model's center of gravity is clearly with the hosts.