Greuther Fürth1-2Bochum

Greuther Fürth host Bochum in the DFB-Pokal first round. The model gives the home side a 46.3% win probability, but Bochum have won both prior meetings between the clubs.

Fürth's last 20 home matches bring eight wins, five draws and seven losses, with an average of 1.65 goals scored and 1.85 conceded. Their recent form is mixed: two wins, one draw and two defeats in the last five, most recently a loss.

Bochum's last 20 away matches produce five wins, seven draws and eight losses, averaging 1.1 scored and 1.3 conceded per game. They are in better recent form: two wins, two draws and one defeat in the last five, with a win last time out.

Only two meetings are on record, both won by Bochum. The aggregate score is 5-1 in their favour, with both matches producing more than two goals. The most recent meeting at this venue ended 3-0 to Bochum.

Fürth's home win rate is 40%, compared with Bochum's 25% away win rate. Fürth also score more at home than Bochum away, but concede more too, suggesting the home advantage is real but not dominant.

Both sides have had similar rest: eight days for Fürth and nine for Bochum, so fatigue is unlikely to factor heavily. The head-to-head record is based on only two meetings, which limits its usefulness.

The model gives Fürth a 46.3% win probability, with a draw at 23.6% and Bochum at 30.1%. It projects a 1-1 scoreline as the most likely exact result, while expecting about three goals overall. Fürth are more likely than Bochum to win by two or more (24.6% vs 13.1%), and the model's confidence is medium.

The data suggests a close, open game in which Fürth hold a narrow edge. Bochum's historical dominance is based on just two matches, so it should not be over-weighted. If the model is right, Fürth advance; a draw or Bochum win remain credible alternative outcomes.