Granada2-0Mallorca

Round two of La Liga 2 brings Granada and Mallorca together at Los Cármenes, with both sides having played their previous match on 15 August. The model projects a Granada win, giving the home side a 72.5% win probability and a 2-0 scoreline, with medium confidence.

Granada's recent five matches (most recent first) read DWLWL, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. At home over their last 20, they have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses, scoring 1.4 per game and conceding 1.0.

Mallorca come in with a strong recent run of WDWWW, averaging 2.6 scored and 0.6 conceded in their last five. Their long-term away record is much weaker: 2 wins, 4 draws and 14 losses in 20, with 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded per game.

There are no prior meetings between Granada and Mallorca on record, so the head-to-head provides no basis for projection. The matchup must be judged from current form and the model's inputs alone.

Granada's home record over the last 20 shows 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses, with 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Mallorca's away record is far weaker: 2 wins, 4 draws and 14 losses, with 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded per game.

Both sides have had nine days of rest, so there is no short-turnaround concern. The lack of head-to-head history adds uncertainty, and the gap between Mallorca's strong recent form and their poor away record is the main tension the model must weigh.

The model gives Granada a 72.5% win probability, the draw 18.8% and Mallorca 8.7%. It projects exactly 2.54 total goals, with a 72.2% chance of at least two goals and a 46.6% chance of a Granada win by two or more. The top exact scorelines are 2-0 (15.9%), 1-0 (15.8%) and 3-0 (10.7%), and the chance each side scores at least once is 35.7%.

The data points firmly to a Granada victory, supported by home superiority, Mallorca's poor road record and a model that expects a two-goal margin. That projection would be wrong if Mallorca's recent scoring output travels, where they have historically struggled. The medium confidence level reflects that genuine uncertainty.