Gimpo FC2-1Gimcheon Sangmu

This Korea Cup Round of 16 tie brings together Gimpo FC and Gimcheon Sangmu at Gimpo Solteo Football Field. Neither side has a league table record available, so the starting point is recent form: both teams arrive on a three-day turnaround after playing on August 16. The most significant number from the model is the draw probability, which stands at 47.5% — the single most likely outcome in this fixture.

With no prior meetings between the clubs on record, the model leans on each side's recent performances. Gimpo have been solid at home, while Gimcheon have shown strong form overall, but the projected scoreline of 0-0 reflects a match expected to produce very few goals.

Gimpo's last five home matches have yielded two wins and three draws, with no defeats. They have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game at home, a profile that suggests a compact, low-scoring side.

Looking at their last five matches in all competitions, the pattern is identical: two wins, three draws, and the same scoring and conceding averages. That consistency between overall and home form indicates the home numbers are not a small-sample artifact.

Gimcheon Sangmu are unbeaten in their last two away matches, with one win and one draw, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 0.5 conceded. The away sample is small, so these numbers should be treated with caution.

In their last five matches overall, Gimcheon have recorded three wins and two draws, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Their overall scoring rate matches Gimpo's, but they have conceded slightly more per game.

There are no prior meetings between Gimpo FC and Gimcheon Sangmu in the available data. With no head-to-head record to draw on, the historical dimension of this fixture is essentially a blank slate.

That absence of precedent means the model's output is based entirely on recent form and home/away splits, which raises the level of uncertainty around any forecast.

At home, Gimpo's last five matches show exactly the same record as their overall recent form: two wins, three draws, and identical scoring and conceding averages. This suggests the home setting has not materially changed their output in the sample available.

For Gimcheon, the away data is thinner — just two matches — but they have been unbeaten in that limited run, with a slightly lower scoring average (1.0 per game) and a stingier defensive average (0.5 conceded) than their overall numbers. The small sample size makes it hard to draw firm conclusions about their road form.

Both teams come into this match on three days of rest after playing on August 16, a congestion the model flags as a short turnaround. That shared factor may help explain the modest goal projection.

No league table data is provided for either side, so this preview relies on recent form and the model's estimates. In addition, the absence of head-to-head history and the small away sample for Gimcheon contribute to the model's medium confidence.

The Poisson model gives Gimpo a 31.8% win probability, Gimcheon a 20.7% probability, and the draw the highest share at 47.5%. The projected scoreline is 0-0, with expected goals of 0.56 for the home side and 0.40 for the away side.

In total, the model expects around 0.95 goals in the match, with a 24.7% chance of two or more goals and just a 7.2% chance of three or more. The probability that both teams score is 14%, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring affair.

On the winning margin, a draw is the single most likely result at 47.5%. If there is a winner, it is far more likely to be by a single goal: a home win by one has 24% probability and an away win by one has 17%, while wins by two or more goals are each below 8%.

The data points consistently to a tightly contested, low-scoring match. The model's most likely outcome is a draw, and the most likely exact scoreline is 0-0, though a one-goal victory for either side is the next plausible alternative.

The combination of short rest for both teams, the absence of head-to-head history, and the limited away sample for Gimcheon makes any prediction less certain than it might otherwise be. If either side can find a goal despite the low expected totals, the draw becomes less likely, and the contest could tip toward a narrow single-goal margin.