Gimhae FC0-3Yongin FC

This K League 2 Round 24 fixture pairs two sides without a published league position in the available data, both coming off inconsistent runs. The model sees a near-perfect three-way split, with Gimhae's 33.6% win probability barely ahead of the draw and away win. A low-scoring outcome is the central expectation, with the most likely exact scoreline 0-0.

Gimhae have not won in their last five matches, recording two draws and three defeats while averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. At home over the last three they remain winless with two draws and a loss, scoring 0.67 per game and conceding 1.0. Their most recent result was a defeat on 22 August.

Yongin's recent five show one win, two draws and two losses, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average. Away from home they have yet to win in the last three, taking two draws and a loss while averaging 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded. Their last match on 23 August was also a defeat.

There are no prior meetings between the clubs on record, so any head-to-head inference is impossible. The model's medium confidence is therefore based solely on recent form and goal aggregates rather than historical matchups.

Gimhae's home numbers over the last three are slightly better defensively than their overall recent run, conceding 1.0 per game versus 1.4, but the sample is small. Yongin's away figures are slightly more open, with 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded compared with their recent averages of 1.2 and 1.6. Neither side has won in their respective last three home or away matches.

Both teams enter on eight and seven days of rest respectively, so fatigue is unlikely to be a differentiator. The absence of a league table and of any prior head-to-head record leaves recent form and the model as the only guide. With both sides winless in their last three home/away matches, there is little to separate them.

The Poisson model gives Gimhae a 33.6% win probability, a 33.3% draw, and a 33.1% away win — effectively a three-way toss-up. It projects about 1.77 total goals, with 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.1%, and a 52.7% chance of at least two goals. The winning-margin distribution is narrow: a home win by one is 21.9%, an away win by one is 21.7%, and the draw is 33.3%; each side scoring at least once is put at 34.4%. Confidence is medium.

The data points to a tight, low-scoring contest in which a single goal could decide the result. Gimhae's slight edge in win probability makes them the nominal pick, but the near-even split and the absence of any head-to-head or table data mean a draw or a one-goal away win would be no surprise. The projection would be upended if either side's true attacking or defensive quality diverges sharply from the recent five-match aggregates.