Fulham1-0Stuttgart

Fulham begin their 2026 season with a home friendly against Stuttgart at Craven Cottage. It is the first meeting between the two sides on record, so there is no head-to-head history to lean on.

The model makes Fulham the favorite, giving them a 44.2% win probability to Stuttgart's 35.4% and 20.4% for the draw. The projected score is 2-1, with the model expecting a high-scoring game: roughly 4 goals combined and a 75.4% chance that both teams score. The main uncertainty is Fulham's long off-season layoff, as they have not played since May 24.

Fulham's home form over their last 20 matches at Craven Cottage shows 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats, a win rate of 55%. They have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per home game, which suggests a solid but not dominant profile.

Their most recent five matches, all from before the break, ended W-D-L-L-W, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. That is a slight drop-off in attacking output compared with the longer home sample. Fulham last played on May 24, and this fixture represents their season opener after an 83-day gap.

Stuttgart's away record from their last 20 matches on the road shows 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses, a win rate of 45%. They have been prolific away from home, averaging 2.65 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match, a combined 4.45 goals per away game.

In their most recent five matches, the run reads W-D-W-D-D, with an average of 3.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. That recent scoring output is markedly higher than the longer away sample. Stuttgart's last match was on July 29, 17 days before this fixture, so they arrive with far less time since their previous game than Fulham.

No prior meetings between Fulham and Stuttgart are on record. This is therefore a first encounter with no historical results to inform the projection.

With no head-to-head data, the model must rely entirely on each side's recent form and home/away splits, which adds to the uncertainty of any forecast.

Craven Cottage is Fulham's home ground, and their last 20 home matches show an 11-2-7 record, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. That implies a modest scoring environment when Fulham are at home.

Stuttgart's away form over the same sample size is 9-5-6, but with a much higher tempo: 2.65 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per away game. The combined average in Stuttgart's away matches is 4.45 goals, well above the 2.6 combined average in Fulham's home matches. The model's projected 4.07 total goals sits closer to Stuttgart's away profile, suggesting this fixture could play out with more goals than Fulham's home average would alone imply.

Fulham enter this match after an off-season gap of 83 days, with their last match on May 24. This is their season opener, and the extended layoff is the clearest scheduling factor. Stuttgart, by contrast, played as recently as July 29, a 17-day gap, and have already had several matches in the run-up to this friendly.

There is no head-to-head record to draw on. Additionally, this is a club friendly, so the match context is less formal than a league fixture, and the model's medium confidence reflects that combination of unknowns.

The Poisson model gives Fulham the highest win probability at 44.2%, with Stuttgart at 35.4% and the draw at 20.4%. This makes a home win the most likely outcome, though the margin of favor is not overwhelming.

The projected score is 2-1, with expected goals of 2.15 for Fulham and 1.92 for Stuttgart. The scorelines with the highest model probabilities are 2-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.3%), and 1-1 (7%). The model expects a high-scoring affair, with about 4.07 total goals. It sees a 91.4% chance of at least two goals in the match, 77.3% for three or more, and 58.1% for four or more. The probability that both teams score is 75.4%.

Looking at the margin, the model gives Fulham a 25.5% chance of winning by two or more goals and an 18.7% chance of winning by exactly one. The draw sits at 20.4%, Stuttgart by one at 16.7%, and Stuttgart by two or more at 18.7%. The confidence level is medium, reflecting the lack of head-to-head data and the preseason setting.

The data collectively points to a Fulham win: the model gives them a 44.2% probability, the highest outcome, and projects a 2-1 scoreline. Fulham's home record shows a 55% win rate, while Stuttgart's away games have averaged 2.65 goals scored but also 1.8 conceded.

The main qualifications are the complete absence of head-to-head data, Fulham's 83-day off-season gap, and the fact that this is a preseason friendly. Those factors justify the model's medium confidence rather than a strong one. A draw or away win would fit within the model's probability distribution, but the single most likely outcome, based on the data, remains a home victory.