FrosinonevsSassuolo

Frosinone's 2026-27 Serie A record shows two matches played, three points, three goals scored and one conceded. Sassuolo's most recent full-season data comes from 2025-26, when they finished 11th on 49 points. The model makes Frosinone a clear favourite at 68.7% with a projected 1-0 scoreline, and Sassuolo's away numbers are the main reason that gap is so wide.

Frosinone have taken three points from two league games, with their attack ranked eighth of 20 and their defence sixth. The home record over the last 20 is stronger still: 12 wins, five draws and three defeats, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded at a 60% win rate. Recent form reads LWDWD, at 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game.

Sassuolo's profile is drawn from last season: 11th place, 49 points, 46 scored and 50 conceded across 38 matches, with the attack ranked seventh in the division and the defence 14th. Away from home it is the weaker half of that record — four wins, six draws and ten defeats in the last 20, at 1.15 scored and 1.4 conceded. Recent form is DLWDD at 1.6 goals at each end.

Only three meetings are on record, which is too small a sample to lean on. Each side has one win and one draw, with the goals level at 3-3, an average of two per meeting. Two of the three produced two goals or fewer, and the most recent, on 2 September 2026, finished 1-1.

Frosinone's home split is better than their overall profile: 12 wins in 20 at a 60% win rate, against a 50% league win rate this season from a two-match sample. Sassuolo's 20% away win rate sits well below the 36.8% they recorded across last season as a whole. The venue widens a gap the tables alone do not show.

Frosinone have had six days since their last match and Sassuolo five, so neither faces a short turnaround. Sassuolo's recent schedule has been tougher, an average opponent rank of 9.8 against Frosinone's 12.8, which is the one measure pointing to a closer contest than the probabilities suggest. Sassuolo's baseline also comes from a full season ago, adding uncertainty to it.

The Poisson model gives Frosinone 68.7%, the draw 22.5% and Sassuolo 8.8%, at high confidence. It projects 1.69 goals for the hosts and 0.43 for Sassuolo, a 1-0 scoreline, with 1-0 (20.4%), 2-0 (17.2%) and 0-0 (12.1%) the likeliest exact scores. Combined goals come to about 2.11; the margin distribution puts Frosinone by two or more at 40% and by one at 28.7%.

The data points to a Frosinone win, pairing the strongest home split in the sample against the weakest away one, with a low-scoring game as the model's central expectation. Sassuolo's tougher recent schedule is the main reason to read the 68.7% as an upper bound rather than a floor. A single goal either way would be enough to undercut the projection, with 0-0 the third-likeliest exact score.