Frosinone4-1Juve Stabia

This is a Coppa Italia round of 64 tie at Stadio Benito Stirpe. Both teams enter their first competitive match of the 2026-27 season after a long break. The fixture pits Frosinone's imposing home record against Juve Stabia's struggles on the road.

The model's most likely outcome is a Frosinone win, carrying an 83.8% win probability. Expected goals are strongly in the home side's favor at 2.72 to 0.5, and the projected scoreline is 2-0.

No league table data is on record for Frosinone, but their last 20 home matches show 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses. They average 2.2 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game at home, with a 65% win rate.

Their most recent five overall matches produced four wins and a draw, averaging 2.4 scored and 0.4 conceded. The last of those was on 8 May, meaning a 100-day gap before this cup tie. That makes this a season opener in the full sense of the term.

Juve Stabia's last 20 away matches yielded 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses, a 20% win rate. They average 1 goal scored and 1.55 conceded on the road, giving them a negative goal-difference per away game of about half a goal.

Their recent five overall matches include one win, two draws and two losses, averaging 1 scored and 1.2 conceded. They last played on 19 May, 89 days before this fixture. The long gap applies equally to both sides, but Juve Stabia's underlying away numbers are far less encouraging.

The four recorded meetings between these sides all came within the last two seasons. Frosinone have two wins and two draws, with no losses in the series. Juve Stabia have yet to win any of the four encounters.

Total goals stand at 5-1 in Frosinone's favor, and three of the four matches produced two or fewer total goals. The sample is modest, but the pattern is consistent with the gap in quality suggested by the recent home and away records.

The home/away splits reinforce the model's lean. Frosinone's home win rate is 65%, and they score more than two goals per game at the Stadio Benito Stirpe while conceding under a goal on average.

Juve Stabia's away record is the clear weak spot: a 20% win rate with an average of 1.55 goals conceded per game. The contrast in venue performance is sharply in Frosinone's favor, and the venue data is a central input to the model's projected margin.

Both sides are coming off an extended off-season break, with 100 and 89 days respectively since their last competitive match. That makes this a genuine season opener, and rustiness could affect the tempo of the game. The model accounts for the data at hand but flags medium confidence, partly because the underlying form comes from last season's campaigns.

No additional schedule strain is indicated for either side, and there is no promotion-related adjustment to the strengths. The main contextual factor is the fresh start for both teams, which introduces more uncertainty than a typical mid-season cup tie.

The Poisson model projects a 2-0 Frosinone win, with expected values of 2.72 and 0.5 goals. The most likely individual scorelines are 2-0 at 14.9%, 3-0 at 13.5% and 1-0 at 10.9%. These are exact-score projections, not outcome probabilities, but they show a clear cluster around a comfortable home win.

Total goals are projected at about 3.22, with an 83% chance of at least two goals and a 62.3% chance of at least three. The winning-margin distribution gives Frosinone a 63.7% chance of winning by two or more goals, and a 20.2% chance of a one-goal margin. Juve Stabia's chances of winning by any margin total under five percent, with a draw at 11.6%. The model's confidence is medium.

The data points squarely toward a Frosinone victory, likely by a comfortable margin. Their home record, Juve Stabia's road struggles, and the head-to-head record all align in the same direction, and the model's most likely outcome is a Frosinone win at 83.8%.

The main source of uncertainty is the long break: both teams are effectively starting from scratch, and the model's medium confidence reflects that. A narrow, low-scoring contest would require Juve Stabia to hold firm in a way their away numbers do not suggest, but it is not outside the range of outcomes the model allows. If the match deviates from the projection, the likely cause would be a more disjointed opener than either team's season averages imply.