Fremad AmagervsThisted

This Danish 2nd Division round 5 fixture at Sundby Idrætspark features two sides without a recorded league position in the data. The model projects a high-scoring contest, with about 4.5 goals expected. It gives Thisted a 45.6% win probability against Fremad Amager's 35.2%.

Fremad Amager's last five games read DWLLD, averaging one goal scored and 1.4 conceded. Their only home match on record ended level, with one goal each, and a 0% win rate from that sample. The home sample is too small to draw strong conclusions.

Thisted's recent form is LLLWL, averaging 2.2 scored and 2 conceded. Away from home they have one win in three, with a much higher scoring rate of 3.67 per game but also 2.67 conceded, pointing to an open and variable pattern.

There are no prior meetings between these sides on record. With no head-to-head history to lean on, the fixture is essentially a blank slate for both clubs.

Fremad Amager's single home game produced a draw, with one goal scored and one conceded. Thisted's away matches have averaged 3.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded, a markedly higher-scoring split than their overall recent averages of 2.2 and 2.0. The venue data, though limited, suggests Thisted's away games tend to be more open.

Both sides have had seven days of rest since their last match, leaving no scheduling edge. With only a handful of games on record and a tiny home sample for Fremad Amager, uncertainty is significant. The model's medium confidence rating reflects this limited basis.

The model gives Thisted a 45.6% win probability, a draw 19.2%, and Fremad Amager 35.2%. The expected scoreline is 2-2, with the most likely exact score at 2-2 (7%), followed by 1-2 and 2-1. It projects about 4.5 total goals, with a 94.1% chance of at least two goals and an 80.2% chance both sides score. The winning-margin distribution shows the largest single bucket is an away win by two or more at 27.6%, while the draw carries 19.2%.

The data points to a close but high-scoring contest in which Thisted's away firepower gives them the edge. The model's most likely outcome is a Thisted win, even though the single most likely scoreline is 2-2. That projection would be wrong if Fremad Amager's one-game home defensive solidity proves the norm, or if Thisted's erratic recent run continues.