Fremad Amager1-1Roskilde

This Round 4 meeting is a same-day rematch: the two sides drew 1-1 earlier on 21 August and now play again on the same date. The model makes Roskilde the clear favorite, with a 67.2% win probability that dominates the outcome distribution.

Fremad Amager's league table position is not included in the data, leaving recent results as the main guide. Their last five read D-W-L-L-D, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per match. Their only home match on record ended 1-1, leaving them without a home win in that single sample.

Roskilde arrive unbeaten in five, with a D-D-W-W-D run and averages of 2.2 scored and 1 conceded per match. Their three away games have produced two wins and a draw, with 2.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per outing.

Only one prior meeting is on record, a 1-1 draw played earlier on 21 August. That sample is too small to carry predictive weight on its own.

Fremad Amager's single home match ended level, while Roskilde's away record is strong: two wins from three, scoring more than two and a half goals per game. The contrast between the sides' recent defensive and attacking numbers, rather than any stadium effect, drives the model.

Both teams face a congested short turnaround with zero days of rest, a scheduling constraint that applies equally to each side. The more telling gap is Fremad Amager's 1.4 goals conceded per match against Roskilde's 2.2 scored, which the model translates into a heavily skewed win probability.

The model gives Roskilde a 67.2% chance of victory, with the draw at 22.1% and Fremad Amager at 10.7%. The projected score is 0-1, and the most likely exact scorelines are 0-1 and 0-2. Total goals project to about 2.3, with a 66.7% chance of at least two; Roskilde winning by two or more is the single most probable margin outcome at 39.7%.

The data collectively points to a Roskilde away win, with their superior scoring output and away form outweighing Fremad Amager's limited home sample. The congested schedule and the earlier 1-1 draw are the main reasons for caution. If Roskilde fail to convert their chances, the draw is the next most likely result at 22.1%.