Freiburg4-1Motherwell

This UEFA Conference League fixture sees Freiburg host Motherwell at Europa-Park Stadion. The model gives Freiburg a narrow edge at 38.6% to win, while the projected scoreline is 1-1. Freiburg arrive on a five-match winning run, but Motherwell's away form is respectable.

Freiburg have no league table record in the data, but their recent form is perfect: five wins from five, averaging 3.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. At home over their last 20 matches they have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with a 60% win rate.

Motherwell's recent form is mixed: two losses, two draws and a win in their last five, scoring 0.8 goals per game. Away from home they have won two of their last four matches, with one draw and one loss, averaging 1.5 scored and 0.75 conceded.

Only one prior meeting is on record, a 3-1 Freiburg win in the reverse fixture on 2026-08-20. That sample is too small to draw any reliable conclusions from the head-to-head.

Freiburg's home record over 20 matches shows 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with an average of 2.05 goals scored and 1.15 conceded. Motherwell's away splits are based on just four matches, so they carry less statistical weight.

Freiburg are on a short turnaround of four days since their last match, while Motherwell have had seven days of rest. Freiburg also carry momentum from five straight wins, but Motherwell's away form indicates they are competitive on the road.

The model gives Freiburg a 38.6% win probability, a 27.8% chance of a draw, and 33.6% for Motherwell, making Freiburg the most likely outcome. The projected scoreline is 1-1, with the model expecting about 2.37 total goals and a 68.5% probability of two or more. The winning-margin distribution is tight: a one-goal home win (21.8%) is only slightly ahead of a one-goal away win (20%), with the draw at 27.8%.

The data points to a close contest, with Freiburg's strong form giving them a slight edge. A draw would not be a surprise given the model's projection. If Freiburg maintain their attacking output, they should win by a narrow margin, but the short turnaround and Motherwell's away resilience make an away result plausible.