Forward Madison1-1Charlotte Independence

This USL League One round 25 fixture sees Forward Madison host Charlotte Independence at Breese Stevens Field. The standout number is the model's 99.4% win probability for the hosts, with a projected scoreline of 6-0. These sides have never met before.

Forward Madison's last three home games produced two wins and a draw, scoring 2.67 per match and conceding once. Their recent overall run is WDLWW, averaging 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. They last played on 2026-08-16, giving them seven days' rest.

Charlotte Independence have played only one away match in the data, a 0-3 loss. Their recent overall form is WLWWL, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. That last match came on 2026-08-15, an eight-day turnaround.

No prior meetings between these sides are on record. With no head-to-head data, there is no historical basis for predicting this fixture.

Forward Madison's home numbers are strong: two wins and a draw from three, with a 66.7% win rate. Charlotte's lone away match was a defeat without scoring, though that is a very thin sample. The venue split reinforces the hosts' edge.

Rest days are nearly equal, with Forward Madison on seven and Charlotte on eight. The biggest factor is the model's extreme confidence in the hosts, underpinned by their scoring output at home. Charlotte's away data comes from a single match, so projections involving them carry extra uncertainty.

The Poisson model gives Forward Madison a 99.4% win probability, with the top scorelines 6-0 and 5-0 each at 16.3%, and 7-0 at 14%. It projects about 6.15 total goals, with a 98.2% chance of at least two goals and an 83.7% chance of four or more. The model expects a lopsided margin: 97.1% probability of a home win by two or more, and only a 13.9% chance that both sides score.

The data points decisively to a Forward Madison win, likely by a wide margin and with multiple goals. The projection would be undermined if Charlotte's single away performance is unrepresentative, or if the model's medium confidence misses an outlier. Given the thin away sample, the exact margin carries the most uncertainty.