Fiorentina1-1Deportivo de A Coruña

This pre-season friendly brings Fiorentina and Deportivo de A Coruña together at Stadio Artemio Franchi. With no league table data available for either side, the focus falls on recent form and the model's projections. The model rates Deportivo as the most likely winner at 38.8%, against a 30.7% draw probability and 30.5% for a home win. The projected scoreline is 0-1, with the most likely individual scorelines being a narrow away win, a goalless draw, or a 1-1 draw.

Fiorentina's recent five matches, most recent first, read W-W-D-W-D, with an average of 1.0 goal scored and 0.2 conceded per game. That defensive efficiency is striking, though the sample is small. Over their last 20 home matches, they have won 5, drawn 9, and lost 6, scoring 1.1 per game and conceding 1.05. The home win rate is 25%, indicating that draws have been the most frequent result at the Franchi.

Deportivo de A Coruña come into this match with a recent run of W-L-W-W-W, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in those five. Their away record over the last 20 matches is notably stronger: 10 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, with 1.55 goals scored per game and 1.05 conceded. The away win rate of 50% is double the home side's home win rate.

There are no prior meetings on record between Fiorentina and Deportivo de A Coruña. With no head-to-head history to draw on, the model relies entirely on each team's recent performances and the venue split. This small sample should temper any conclusions drawn from the fixture directly.

The match is staged at Stadio Artemio Franchi, where Fiorentina have played their last 20 home matches. Their home record shows more draws than wins, with a 25% win rate. Deportivo's away form, by comparison, is a 50% win rate over the same 20-match sample, and they have averaged over 1.5 goals per game on the road. That contrast is the clearest signal in the underlying data.

Both sides have had eight days of rest since their last match, so there is no rest-based edge. The data block includes no league table, no adjusted strength flag, and no scheduling congestion. The absence of head-to-head meetings and the small recent sample size for both sides are the primary qualifications. The model is built only from the goal averages and recent results supplied, so any unquantified factors are excluded.

The Poisson goal model gives Deportivo a 38.8% win probability, the highest of the three outcomes, with a draw at 30.7% and a Fiorentina win at 30.5%. The projected score of 0-1 is driven by expected goals of 0.92 for the home side and 1.08 for the away side. The most likely exact scorelines are 0-1 (14.6%), 0-0 (13.5%), and 1-1 (13.4%). The model's confidence is medium, reflecting the limited information.

The data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest in which Deportivo are the most probable winner, though only by a narrow margin relative to the other outcomes. The away side's superior road record and recent finishing output give them the edge in the model, while Fiorentina's solid recent defense could keep the score close. If Deportivo's away scoring efficiency is not repeated, or if Fiorentina's defensive run holds, a draw becomes very plausible. This is a fixture where the model sees the away win as slightly more likely than the alternatives, but not by a dominant margin.