FenerbahçevsSturm Graz

Fenerbahçe welcome Sturm Graz in a UEFA Champions League fixture on 5 August 2026. The model gives the home side an 87.7% win probability, projecting a 3-0 scoreline from expected values of 3.3 and 0.6 goals.

Sturm Graz arrive with four wins in their last five matches, but their away record over a longer stretch shows only two wins in seven. Fenerbahçe are unbeaten at home in the five-match sample available.

No league table data is on record for Fenerbahçe this season, so their recent run is the only form reference. In their last five matches they have three wins, two draws and no defeats, averaging 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded per game.

At home, the same five-match sample shows three wins and two draws, with a higher scoring average of 1.8 per game. The conceded average matches the overall figure at 0.8 per game, and they have not lost in that run.

Sturm Graz's league table position is not recorded, but their most recent five matches across all venues produced four wins and one loss, with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.

That run stands apart from their away-only record over the last seven matches, where they have two wins and five defeats, scoring 1.14 per game and conceding 2.29. The disparity between the two samples is the clearest signal in their data.

There are no prior meetings on record between Fenerbahçe and Sturm Graz. The fixture is therefore without historical context from either side's perspective.

With such a small head-to-head sample — effectively zero — the model cannot lean on any past pattern. It is built instead from recent form and the home/away split, which adds uncertainty to the projection.

Fenerbahçe's home numbers are slightly better than their overall recent form. They average 1.8 goals scored per home game against 1.4 across the last five matches overall, while the conceded average is identical at 0.8.

Sturm Graz's away record is significantly weaker than their overall run: 1.14 scored and 2.29 conceded per away game, compared with 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded over the last five overall. The home side has not lost in five at home, while the away side has lost five of seven away matches.

Both sides have had a full week to prepare: Fenerbahçe last played on 29 July, seven days before this match, and Sturm Graz on 28 July, eight days prior. Neither is coming off a short turnaround.

The absence of head-to-head history means the model's inputs are limited to recent results and venue splits. The pronounced difference between Sturm Graz's overall form and their away form is the key source of both the model's confidence and its uncertainty.

The Poisson model gives Fenerbahçe an 87.7% win probability, with a draw at 8.6% and a Sturm Graz win at 3.7%. The projected score is 3-0, based on expected values of 3.3 goals for the home side and 0.6 for the away side.

The most likely individual scorelines are 3-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.1%) and 4-0 (10.1%). The model rates its own confidence as medium, reflecting the lack of previous meetings and the small form sample for both teams.

The data points clearly toward a home win. Fenerbahçe are unbeaten at home in the available sample, while Sturm Graz have lost five of their seven away matches, and the model's expected-goals gap is wide.

What would make that projection wrong is Sturm Graz's strong overall recent run — four wins in five — which shows they are capable of a tighter contest if their away form does not repeat. With no head-to-head data, the margin for error is wider than the win probability alone suggests.