Feirense0-1Porto B

Round 3 of the Portuguese LigaPro brings Feirense and Porto B together at Estádio Marcolino de Castro, with both sides playing on a short turnaround. The central number is the model's 67.2% draw probability and a projected 0-0 scoreline. Neither team shows a strong recent scoring record: Feirense average 0.4 goals in their last five, while Porto B concede 2.2 over the same stretch.

Feirense's league table position is not available in the data. In their last three home matches, they have zero wins, two draws and one defeat, scoring no goals and conceding an average of 0.33 per game. Their broader recent form is LLDDD, with 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match.

Porto B also have no league table record provided. Their last three away games produced one win, one draw and one loss, with 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match. Over their last five overall, their form is WLLDL, averaging 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.

The sides have met once on record, with Porto B winning 1-0 at Feirense. That single meeting produced exactly one goal, fitting the model's expectation of a low-scoring contest. With a sample that small, the head-to-head record offers limited insight.

Feirense's last three home games have yielded no wins and no goals, with 0.33 conceded per match. Porto B's corresponding away form is more mixed: one win, one draw and one loss, averaging 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model's projected 0-0 aligns with Feirense's low home scoring output.

Both teams are on zero days of rest, a congested schedule that is a notable factor in this fixture. Feirense's home win rate in the last three is 0%, while Porto B's away win rate is 33.3%. The congested schedule is reflected in the model's low goal projection of 0.44.

The model gives the draw a 67.2% probability, with the exact 0-0 scoreline at 64.4%. Total expected goals are just 0.44; the chance of two or more goals is 7.3%, and both teams scoring is 3.5%. The winning-margin distribution is heavily draw-weighted, with an away win by one goal the most likely non-draw margin at 19.1%. Confidence is medium.

The data collectively points to a very tight, low-scoring affair, with the draw as the model's clear favorite. Feirense have the lowest win probability at 10.6%, and Porto B's away form is modest. A Porto B win by a single goal is the most plausible non-draw outcome. The projection would be wrong if either side finds a way to score more than once, but the model assigns only a 7.3% probability to two or more total goals.