FC Anyang2-1Jeju SK

FC Anyang and Jeju SK meet in the Korea Cup Round of 16 just four days after Jeju claimed a 2-0 win in their most recent league fixture. The Poisson model gives Jeju a 62.2% chance of winning, with a projected scoreline of 1-2. Anyang have lost three of their last five matches, while Jeju have won three straight.

No league table data is available for either side in this preview, so recent form, home/away splits, and the single head-to-head meeting provide the primary context. That meeting favors Jeju, and the model expects the visitors to progress.

FC Anyang's recent form stretches back five matches and reads LLLWW, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Their most recent match was the 2-0 defeat to Jeju on August 15. Over their last two home fixtures, they have one win and one loss, scoring and conceding an identical 1.5 goals per match, which is a slight defensive improvement over their overall recent average.

Jeju SK are on a strong run, with WWWDD in their last five and an average of 2.6 goals scored per match. Their most recent appearance was a 2-0 home win over FC Anyang on August 15. Away from home, they have won all three of their most recent trips, averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1 conceded per match.

Only one head-to-head meeting is on record: on August 15, 2026, Jeju SK won 2-0 at home. That is the entirety of the historical sample, so any head-to-head analysis rests on a single result. The match produced two total goals, below the 3.5 total-goals projection the model expects for this tie.

FC Anyang's home record over their last two matches shows a 50% win rate, with 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Their overall recent numbers are 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded, so the home splits are slightly tighter at the back. Jeju's away form is perfect across their last three, with a 100% win rate and a goal difference of +4 (seven scored, three conceded). The venue has not provided any clear home advantage for Anyang in the limited sample.

Both teams are on a short turnaround, with only four days of rest since their August 15 outings. That schedule is flagged as congested, and it applies equally to both sides. The two teams met on that date as well, meaning this is a rematch inside a week, adding context to the fixture. With no league table data on record, the model leans on recent form and the head-to-head, and it views Jeju as the clear favorite.

The Poisson model assigns a 62.2% win probability to Jeju SK, 19.2% to the draw, and 18.6% to FC Anyang. The projected score is 1-2, with expected goals of 1.2 for the hosts and 2.31 for the visitors. The most likely exact scorelines are 1-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (8.3%), and 0-2 (8.0%). Model confidence is medium.

The model expects about 3.5 total goals, with an 86.4% chance of at least two goals and a 67.9% chance of at least three. Both teams scoring has a 62.8% probability. In the winning-margin distribution, the most likely single margin is an away win by two or more goals at 40.1%, followed by an away win by exactly one goal at 22.1%. A home win by two or more is the least likely at 7.2%.

The data points firmly toward a Jeju SK victory. Their recent form is superior, they have already beaten Anyang 2-0 in the only head-to-head meeting, and the model gives them a substantial probability edge. The projected 1-2 scoreline and the margin distribution both favor a two-goal away win as the single most likely scenario. For FC Anyang to pull off the upset, they would need to beat a side that has already won the sole head-to-head meeting and has not lost away in their last three trips. The model does not favor that outcome, though with medium confidence, there is meaningful uncertainty.