FC Andorra5-1Ceuta

FC Andorra and Ceuta meet at Nou Estadi a Encamp in the opening round of the 2026-2027 La Liga 2 season. With no league table data available yet, the most relevant numbers come from each side's recent home/away splits and five-match form. The model gives Andorra a 62% win probability and a projected 2-1 scoreline, making a home win the most likely outcome. That said, Ceuta have won both previous meetings between these clubs, so the head-to-head record points the other way.

Andorra's home record over their last 20 matches at Nou Estadi a Encamp shows 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, with an average of 1.55 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. That is a 35% win rate. Their most recent five results, listed most recent first, are WLLLW — a win followed by three defeats and another win. In that stretch they have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Their last match was played on 24 July 2026.

Those numbers suggest a side capable of scoring but also prone to inconsistency. The most recent result was a win, though the broader recent pattern has been uneven.

Ceuta's away record over their last 20 matches shows 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses, scoring an average of 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.7. That is a 30% win rate. Their recent form, most recent first, is WWWLD — three consecutive wins before a loss and a draw. Over those five matches they have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded. Their last match was played on 29 July 2026.

Ceuta have been the stronger of the two sides in the immediate run-up to this fixture, with three straight wins among their last five. However, their away defensive numbers are weaker than Andorra's home attacking numbers suggest.

Only two meetings between these clubs are on record, both won by Ceuta. On 24 May 2026, Ceuta won 2-0 away, and on 4 January 2026, they won 2-1 at home. Across those two matches, Andorra have scored a total of one goal and Ceuta four, for an average of 2.5 goals per meeting.

With just two meetings in the sample, the head-to-head is too small to be relied upon as a strong indicator, but it is notable that Ceuta have won both without a draw.

The home/away splits show Andorra with a 35% win rate at home against Ceuta's 30% win rate away. Andorra's goal difference at home is positive, scoring 1.55 and conceding 1.25 per game, while Ceuta's away goal difference is negative, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.7.

These splits are the closest available proxy for a league table, and they favor Andorra, particularly in attack. Ceuta's away defensive average of 1.7 conceded per game is a notable weakness to take into a match against a team averaging 1.55 goals at home.

This is the opening round of the season, so neither side has played a competitive match in the current campaign. Andorra have had 22 days since their last match, while Ceuta have had 17. That is a long break for both, though with no off-season flag in the data, we treat them both simply as returning after the summer break.

The model's confidence is medium, which reflects the limited head-to-head sample and the absence of current table data. With only two prior meetings, the historical record is a minor factor compared to recent form and home/away splits.

The Poisson goal model gives Andorra a 62% win probability, a 20.3% draw probability, and a 17.7% chance of a Ceuta win. The projected scoreline is 2-1, with expected goals of 2.11 for Andorra and 1.03 for Ceuta. The most likely exact scores are 2-1, 2-0, and 1-1, in that order.

The model projects about 3.14 total goals, with an 82.1% chance of at least two goals, a 60.7% chance of three or more, and a 38.4% chance of four or more. There is a 56.6% probability that both teams score at least once. From Andorra's perspective, the winning-margin distribution shows a 38.7% chance of winning by two or more goals, a 23.4% chance of winning by exactly one, a 20.3% chance of a draw, an 11.4% chance of losing by one, and a 6.2% chance of losing by two or more.

The data collectively points to an Andorra home win. Their home record is stronger than Ceuta's away record, the model gives them a clear majority probability, and they have the higher recent scoring rate. The projected 2-1 scoreline implies both teams score, and the model puts the probability of that at 56.6%.

However, the head-to-head is entirely in Ceuta's favor, and two matches is a small sample. If Ceuta's away defense can hold better than its recent average, or if Andorra's attack fails to convert its chances, the result could easily be tighter than the 62% figure suggests. The model's medium confidence is a reminder that a home win is the most likely outcome, not a certainty.