FBK Karlstad4-3Piteå

Neither side's league table position is on record for this Swedish Division 1 North meeting, so the focus falls on recent form and the model's projection. Karlstad host Piteå at Örsholmen IP with both teams on seven days' rest. The model gives the hosts a 55.3% win probability, the highest single outcome.

Karlstad took six points from their last three home matches, with two wins and a defeat, averaging one goal scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their broader five-game run includes two wins, two losses and a draw, with 1.6 goals conceded per contest.

Piteå have not won any of their last three away games, drawing two and losing one while averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Their last five matches contain three draws and two losses, with an average of 0.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.

There are no prior meetings on record between these sides, so head-to-head history provides no basis for comparison.

Karlstad's home sample is small but positive: two wins and a loss in three games at Örsholmen IP. Piteå's away form over the same window is winless, and they have scored fewer than a goal per game on the road.

Both sides come into this round with identical rest, so freshness is not a differentiator. The model projects a low-scoring game, with about 1.35 total goals expected and only a 16.7% probability that both teams score.

The model's most likely outcome is a home win, with a 55.3% probability, compared with 34.5% for a draw and 10.2% for an away win. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0 (27.4%), followed by 0-0 (25.8%), and confidence is medium. The margin distribution is tight: a home win by a single goal is the most common winning margin at 31.9%, while a two-goal home win sits at 23.5%.

The data points to a home win, backed by Karlstad's home record and Piteå's away struggles. The draw, at 34.5%, is the strongest non-home outcome, and the low goal expectation keeps 0-0 as a live possibility.