Ezeiza3-1Belgrano de Zárate

This Round 16 fixture sees Ezeiza welcome Belgrano de Zárate to Estadio Santiago Maratea. The away side arrive with the model strongly favouring them, projecting an 88.2% win probability, while Ezeiza have lost three of their last five. No prior meetings are on record, so this is a first competitive encounter between the two.

Ezeiza come into the match with a recent run of one win in five (DLDLW), scoring an average of 1.2 goals per game and conceding 2. At home, their last two outings have produced a draw and a loss, with three goals conceded per match.

Belgrano de Zárate are unbeaten in their last two away matches, winning one and drawing the other, averaging 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. Their overall recent form reads DWLDW, with a goal average of 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded across the last five. That defensive record underpins their status as clear favourites.

There are no recorded meetings between Ezeiza and Belgrano de Zárate. The absence of head-to-head data makes this fixture difficult to assess historically, so the model's projection rests entirely on recent form and venue splits.

Ezeiza's home record across their last two matches shows one draw and one defeat, with a goal differential of -4. Belgrano de Zárate have one win and one draw on the road in their two away games, conceding only 0.5 goals per match. The contrast in defensive efficiency at this venue strongly favours the visitors.

Ezeiza have had two fewer rest days than their opponents, though both sides are reasonably fresh. More significant is the away side's defensive record, conceding just 0.6 goals per game in their recent run, while Ezeiza are conceding two per game. With no prior meetings, the reliability of these form-based projections is moderate.

The Poisson model gives Belgrano de Zárate an 88.2% chance of winning, with a draw at 9% and an Ezeiza win at 2.8%. It projects a 0-2 scoreline, and the most likely exact scores are 0-2, 0-3, and 0-4. The model expects about 3.36 total goals, with an 84.8% probability of at least two goals and a 70.5% chance the visitors win by two or more.

The data points overwhelmingly toward a Belgrano de Zárate victory, likely by a comfortable margin. For that to be wrong, Ezeiza would need to reverse their recent defensive trend and keep the visitors from converting their chances. Given the gap in form and the model's expectations, an away win is the clear central projection, though the medium confidence leaves some room for a tighter contest.