Everton1-1Lille

Everton host Lille at Hill Dickinson Stadium in a club friendly, with both sides beginning their 2026 schedules. No league table data is available for either team, and the clubs have no prior meetings on record, so the analysis rests on the supplied match records and the model projection.

The most important numbers are the home and away records: Everton have won 35% of their last 20 home matches, while Lille have won 60% of their last 20 away matches. The model's most likely outcome is a Lille win at 40.4%, although the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 (12.2%).

Everton have no league table position to reference. Their home record over the last 20 matches is 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses, a 35% win rate, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game.

Their recent form across all venues has been poorer: the last five matches show three losses and two draws (LLLDD), with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Their most recent outing was on 28 July, giving them an 18-day break.

Lille also have no league table data available. Away from home over the last 20 matches, they have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, a 60% win rate, while averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game.

In their last five matches across all venues, the sequence is LWDWD, with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Their last match was on 17 May, making this a 90-day gap and the team's first fixture of the new season.

There are no prior meetings on record between Everton and Lille. With a zero-match head-to-head sample, there is no historical data to lean on for this fixture. Any expectations must be derived entirely from each side's recent match records and the model's output.

Everton will be at home at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Their recent home record shows more defeats than victories in the sample: 7 wins against 8 losses, with 5 draws. They score an average of 1.4 goals per home game and concede 1.35.

Lille's away form is notably stronger: 12 wins in 20, with only 6 losses. They average 1.6 goals scored and 1.15 conceded on the road. That gap between Everton's home struggles and Lille's away success is a central feature of this match.

Rest and schedule differ substantially. Everton played as recently as 28 July and have had an 18-day recovery period. Lille last played on 17 May, a 90-day hiatus, and this is their season opener; the length of that break makes their current sharpness difficult to judge.

There is no head-to-head record to provide a baseline, and the model is marked as medium confidence, meaning the probabilities are not decisively separated. With no league table data, the available sample consists of the last 20 home/away matches for each side and the most recent five overall results.

The Poisson model assigns a 33.9% win probability to Everton, a 25.7% probability to the draw, and a 40.4% probability to a Lille win, making a Lille victory the most likely outcome. However, the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, at 12.2%, based on expected goals of 1.28 for Everton and 1.42 for Lille.

On goal totals, the model projects about 2.71 goals in the match. The probability of at least two goals is 75.2%, at least three goals 50.8%, and at least four goals 28.7%. The chance that both teams score is 54.9%.

In terms of margin, a draw is the single most likely margin at 25.7%, but grouping by result gives Lille win by one goal at 21.3% and Lille win by two or more at 19.1%, summing to the 40.4% away win probability. Everton win by one is 19.2% and by two or more is 14.7%. The model's confidence is medium, reflecting a reasonably close set of probabilities.

The data points to a closely contested friendly with a slight edge to Lille. Their away form is significantly stronger than Everton's home form, and the model gives them the highest win probability at 40.4%. The projected scoreline is 1-1, and a draw is the single most likely margin, but the combined away-win probabilities are the largest outcome group.

The main uncertainties are Lille's 90-day layoff and the absence of head-to-head history. If Everton's recent concession rate (2.0 per game over the last five) persists, Lille are the more likely winners; if the long break affects Lille's start, Everton's home advantage could tell. Given the medium confidence, a home win or a draw would not be a major surprise.