Elche2-2Córdoba

This pre-season friendly sees Elche welcome Córdoba to the Estadio Martínez Valero. Neither side has any league table data on record for the current season, so the focus falls on recent form and the model's projections.

The model gives Elche a 60.7% win probability, with a projected scoreline of 1-0. Elche's home record over the last 20 matches is notably strong, while Córdoba's away numbers are more modest.

Elche's last five matches, most recent first, read draw, draw, win, loss, draw (DDWLD). They have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in that run.

At home, their longer-term record shows 9 wins, 9 draws, and 2 losses in the last 20 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game. That 45% win rate at home underpins the model's lean toward the hosts. However, they face a short turnaround, having played just three days ago.

Córdoba's recent form is less encouraging: in their last five matches they have drawn two, lost two, and won one (DDLLW), averaging only 0.6 goals scored per game.

Away from home over a longer sample, they have recorded 8 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses in the last 20, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 1.55. Their 40% win rate away is below Elche's home mark. They have enjoyed a longer rest period, with eight days since their last fixture.

Elche have won both of the two meetings on record between these sides. In September 2024 they won 3-1 at home, and in March 2025 they won 2-1 away in Córdoba.

Those two games produced seven goals in total, an average of 3.5 per meeting, with neither game finishing with two or fewer goals. The sample size is small, so these results should not be weighted heavily.

Elche's home record (9W 9D 2L) contrasts with Córdoba's away record (8W 5D 7L) across the last 20 matches in each category. Elche average 1.6 goals at home while Córdoba concede 1.55 on the road, a narrow edge for the hosts.

At the other end, Elche concede just 1.05 at home, while Córdoba score 1.4 away. The model's projected scoreline of 1-0 reflects that balance of scoring and conceding rates.

The most notable factor is the rest disparity: Elche have had three days since their last match, while Córdoba have had eight. That short turnaround for the hosts is flagged as a potential concern, though the model still favors them.

The head-to-head record, while one-sided, comes from only two meetings and is too small to lean on. Additionally, with no league table data available for either side, recent form and the model's output are the primary guides for this friendly.

The Poisson model assigns a 60.7% probability to an Elche win, with a 21.3% chance of a draw and 18% for a Córdoba win. The expected goals are 1.98 for Elche and 0.97 for Córdoba, which maps to a projected scoreline of 1-0.

The most likely individual scorelines are 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.2%), and 1-1 (10.1%). The model's medium confidence reflects the relatively even spread of likely outcomes beyond the favorite.

The data collectively points to an Elche win. Their home record is stronger than Córdoba's away record, and the head-to-head, while small, is one-sided. The model gives them the highest win probability at 60.7%.

The main caveats are Elche's congested schedule and the possibility that a friendly produces an unpredictable result. If Córdoba can improve on their recent scoring output, they may push for a draw or better, but the projected 1-0 scoreline and the model's numbers lean firmly in Elche's direction.