Eintracht Bamberg0-2Würzburg

This is the first meeting on record between Eintracht Bamberg and Würzburg, with both sides entering on three days' rest. The model makes Bamberg the favorite, giving them a 50.7% win probability against 24.4% for Würzburg, while the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1.

Eintracht Bamberg are unbeaten in their last five matches, with three wins and two draws, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. At home their numbers are stronger: from the last three home games they average 3 scored and 0.67 conceded, winning two and drawing one.

Würzburg have also taken seven points from their last three away games, with wins in two and a draw in one, scoring 2.33 and conceding 0.67 per game. Their last five overall include three wins, a draw and a defeat, with 2.6 goals scored but 1.6 conceded.

There are no prior meetings between these sides on record, so this fixture has no head-to-head history to draw on. With such a small sample, the data offer little guidance on how the matchup tends to play out.

Bamberg's home games have seen them score an average of three goals, up from their overall recent rate of 1.8. Würzburg, meanwhile, have conceded only 0.67 per game away from home, compared with 1.6 across their last five matches overall.

Both teams are on a three-day turnaround since their last match on 2026-08-18, flagged as a congested schedule. Neither side has a prior meeting to inform expectations, and league table data is not available for this round, leaving recent form and the model as the main references.

The model (medium confidence) projects about 2.63 total goals, with a 73.8% chance of at least two goals and a 48.9% chance of three or more. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%, just ahead of 1-0 at 11.5%, but the most likely outcome is a home win at 50.7%. The margin distribution leans home, with a win by two or more at 26.6% and a one-goal win at 24%, while away wins are 15.5% by one and 8.9% by two or more.

The data points to a close but home-leaning outcome, with Bamberg's unbeaten home form and higher scoring rate supporting the model's preference for them. However, the medium confidence and the absence of any head-to-head record mean the draw and the away win remain plausible, especially given Würzburg's own strong away record.