EgervsKisvárda II

Round 6 of the 2026-27 Hungarian NB III Northeast features a first competitive meeting between Eger and Kisvárda II. Both sides are on a short turnaround, having played on 26 August. The model makes Eger the favorite at 49% win probability.

Eger have won both of their home matches this season, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Their last five overall show four wins and one loss, with 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game.

Kisvárda II have won both away matches, averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Their last five overall are DWDWD – three draws and two wins – with 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. They are unbeaten across those five.

There are no prior meetings on record between these sides. With no head-to-head history, the fixture offers no historical pattern to weigh.

Eger's home numbers show a tighter defense than their overall recent record, conceding 0.5 per game at home versus 1.4 overall. Kisvárda II's away scoring is higher than their overall average (2.0 vs 1.6), though they also concede slightly more away (1.0 vs 1.2). These splits are based on only two matches per side.

Both clubs are on a three-day turnaround after playing on 26 August, so neither has a rest advantage. This is also a first meeting, adding uncertainty to the projection. The model rates its own confidence as medium.

The model gives Eger a 49% chance of victory, with a draw at 30.6% and a Kisvárda II win at 20.4%. The projected score is 1-0, with expected goals of 1.2 to 0.66, and 1-0 is the most likely exact scoreline at 18.7%. Total goals are projected at about 1.85, with a 55.3% probability of two or more goals and a 33.7% chance that both sides score. The margin distribution is led by a draw (30.6%), followed by a one-goal home win (27.1%) and a home win by two or more (21.9%).

The collective data points to a narrow Eger win, with a 49% probability and a 1-0 projected score. Yet the medium confidence, the absence of prior meetings, and Kisvárda II's perfect away record make a draw a meaningful alternative; the draw is the most frequent single margin at 30.6%. Should Eger's recent concession rate of 1.4 per game persist at home, or Kisvárda II sustain their two-goal away scoring, the model's view would need revising.