Edgeworth3-2Belmont Swansea United

Round 16 of the Northern NSW NPL brings Edgeworth and Belmont Swansea United to Jack McLaughlan Oval. No league table data is available for either side, but recent splits tell a clear story: Edgeworth are unbeaten at home while Belmont have lost every away game in the sample. The model gives Edgeworth a 95.4% win probability, projecting a 3-0 scoreline.

Edgeworth's last three home matches produced two wins and a draw, with an average of 1.33 goals scored and none conceded. Their broader recent run is LWDWW, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded across five games. They last played on 2026-08-16, giving them seven days of rest.

Belmont Swansea United have lost all three of their most recent away games, averaging 1 goal scored and 3.33 conceded. Their overall recent form is LWLLL, with an average of 1.4 scored and 2.8 conceded over five matches. They also had seven days between fixtures.

Only one prior meeting between these sides is on record, an Edgeworth 2-0 win on 2026-08-02. That result fits the current form gap, but a single head-to-head match is too small a sample to lean on. It does provide a baseline for the projected margin.

Edgeworth's home numbers stand out defensively, having conceded zero goals across their last three matches at Jack McLaughlan Oval. Belmont's away numbers are the stark opposite, conceding 3.33 per game while scoring once. That split reinforces the model's view of a one-sided contest.

Both teams have had a full week of rest, so there is no short-turnaround factor at play. The lack of league table data limits season-long context, leaving recent form and venue splits as the main signals. Belmont's away record is the clearest red flag, while Edgeworth's home defense appears formidable.

The model projects about 3.69 total goals, with a high 88.2% probability of at least two. The most likely exact scoreline is 3-0 (18.7%), followed by 4-0 and 2-0. Edgeworth win by two or more goals in 83.9% of simulations, and the probability of both teams scoring is just 13.5%.

All available data points to a comfortable Edgeworth victory, with the model assigning only a 0.5% chance of an away win. A 3-0 or higher-scoring home win is the most plausible outcome. A Belmont result would require a dramatic reversal of recent patterns on both sides.