Dynamo Barnaul5-0Irtysh Omsk

This Russia Cup tie pits Dynamo Barnaul, in strong recent form, against an Irtysh Omsk side that has won none of its last three away matches. The model gives the hosts an 85.8% win probability, projecting a 3-0 scoreline. Barnaul have averaged 2.4 goals per game across their last five outings, while Omsk have conceded 2.67 per game on the road.

No league table data is available for Dynamo Barnaul, so recent form is the main reference. They are unbeaten in their last five matches (WWDWW), averaging 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded. At home, their last four show two wins, one draw and one loss, with 1.5 goals each way.

Irtysh Omsk's last five results are mixed (LDLWD), with an average of 1 goal scored and 1.8 conceded. Their away record is weaker: three matches without a win (0W 1D 2L), scoring 0.67 and conceding 2.67 per game.

There are no prior meetings between these two sides on record. With no head-to-head data, the model's estimates rest entirely on recent form and venue splits.

Playing at Stadion Dinamo Barnaul gives the hosts a notable edge. Their home scoring average (1.5 per game) is lower than their overall recent rate (2.4), while Omsk's away numbers (0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded) are worse than their overall averages (1.0 and 1.8). The gap in venue-specific output is central to the model's projection.

Dynamo Barnaul have only four days of rest since their last match, a short turnaround, while Irtysh Omsk have had 11 days off. The absence of league table data for both sides limits broader context, but the recent form and venue splits are clearly aligned in the hosts' favour. The model rates this projection as medium confidence.

The model assigns an 85.8% probability to a home win, 9.6% to a draw and 4.6% to an away win. The projected score is 3-0, with expected goals of 3.19 for Barnaul and 0.66 for Omsk; the most likely exact scorelines are 3-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.9%) and 4-0 (9.3%). A total of around 3.85 goals is expected, with a 68.8% chance of the home side winning by two or more and a 46.3% probability that both teams score.

All available data points to a comfortable Dynamo Barnaul win. The away side's winless road form and the hosts' recent scoring run are the main drivers. However, the model's medium confidence and the small sample sizes — particularly Omsk's three away matches — mean a closer contest or a draw cannot be discounted entirely.