Dukla PrahavsVysočina Jihlava

This is round 6 of the Czech National Football League, with Dukla Praha hosting Vysočina Jihlava at Stadion Juliska. No league table data is available for either side, and the two clubs have never met before, so the Poisson model leans heavily on recent form. It gives Jihlava a 68.1% win probability.

Dukla have won two of their last three home matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1 conceded per game. Their overall recent run is mixed: five matches produced two wins, one draw, and two losses, with identical scoring and conceding averages of 1.6. They last played on 21 August.

Jihlava are unbeaten in their two away games, with one win and one draw, averaging 2 goals scored and none conceded. Their last five matches overall show two wins, two defeats, and a draw, with 1.2 scored and 0.6 conceded per game. They also last played on 21 August.

There are no prior meetings on record, so head-to-head history provides no guide. The sample is too small to lean on, and the model has nothing from past encounters to factor in.

Dukla's home form shows a higher win rate (66.7% in the last three) than their overall recent run, while Jihlava's away defensive record is perfect across two matches, conceding no goals. However, the sample sizes are small, so these splits should be treated cautiously.

Both sides have had seven days of rest since their last match on 21 August, so neither carries a scheduling disadvantage. With no head-to-head history and no league table data, the model relies on limited recent form, and that uncertainty is reflected in its medium confidence level. Jihlava's away numbers are notably stronger than Dukla's home numbers.

The model projects a 0-1 scoreline, with expected goals of 0.15 for Dukla and 1.32 for Jihlava. It sees a 68.1% chance of an away win, a 27.8% chance of a draw, and only 4.1% for the hosts. Total goals are projected at about 1.47, with a 43.1% chance of two or more; the leading exact scoreline is 0-1 at 30.4%. The winning-margin distribution shows the largest single share for an away win by two or more goals (34.6%).

The data points strongly to a Jihlava victory, with the model favouring a narrow to moderate away margin. The biggest risk to that projection is the small sample: only a handful of matches inform the ratings, and Dukla's home record, while modest, has produced wins in two of three. If Dukla can overcome the model's low expected-goal figure, the result would deviate from the forecast.