Dorados de Chihuahua87-106Abejas de León

Dorados de Chihuahua and Abejas de León meet at Gimnasio Manuel Bernardo Aguirre, just one day after the home side recorded a 97-81 win over the visitors. The model gives Dorados a 71.5% win probability.

Dorados have won four of their last five home games, averaging 86 points scored and 79.2 conceded. Their overall recent run is WLLWW, with averages of 85 scored and 83.4 conceded.

Abejas have won just one of their last five away games, averaging 80 points scored and 84 conceded. Their recent form is LLWLL, with averages of 81.6 scored and 88 conceded.

The only recorded meeting between these sides came on 2026-08-20, when Dorados won 97-81. With a single game in the sample, the head-to-head record is too small to lean on.

Dorados' home win rate over their last five home games is 80%, while Abejas' away win rate is 20%. These splits align with the model's projection of a home win.

Both teams are on a one-day turnaround after playing the previous day, making this a congested fixture for each side. The head-to-head sample is limited to one game, so the respective home and away form carries greater weight than the historical record.

The model makes a Dorados win the most likely outcome, with a 71.5% probability, a projected score of 89-83, and a margin of 6.5 points, for roughly 172 combined points. The margin distribution shows a 36.2% chance of a home win by 11 or more, 35.4% of a home win by 1-10, 20.2% of an away win by 1-10, and 8.2% of an away win by 11 or more. Confidence is medium.

The data points to a Dorados win, supported by strong home form and a recent head-to-head victory. The medium confidence and the congested schedule for both sides leave some room for an Abejas result, but the away side's 28.5% probability is the less likely path.